Peter's Blog

Technical Analysis: Is This Capitulation?

The price analysis two months ago concluded that a neutral market had been found between $1800 and $1850 and was waiting to see a break of resistance or support. It leaned bullish with indicators showing the down move had run its course but it also highlighted the risk that a drop below $1800 and $1750 brings $1680 […]

Comex Update: Gold Sees Massive Delivery Volume Mid-Month

Gold started July delivery activity as the weakest minor month since 2019. This showed a general lack of interest in the market. Considering the activity since then, it’s possible this was a signal of capitulation. Since the start of the delivery month, activity in the July gold contract has exploded.

Comex Inventory: Why is Registered Collapsing During Backwardation?

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of metal into and out of Comex vaults.

Treasury Fails to Capitalize on Record Tax Revenues

The Federal Government ran an $89B deficit in June. This was an increase MoM but below the June deficit last year of $174B.

June YoY CPI Was Horrific – The Next Three Months Could Be Worse

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for June came in at a blistering 1.35% MoM and 9.11% YoY, beating expectations of 1.1% and 8.8% respectively. All prices rose in May with 8 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 94.7% of the total CPI.

Treasury Interest Cost Will Soar Past $500B in the Months Ahead

The US government increased its total debt by $69 billion in June. The average interest rate on all of that debt is also going up, a growing problem for the borrow and spend government. The Treasury Department continues to roll short-term Treasury Bills into longer-dated securities, allowing $148B in Bills to roll off the debt […]

Jobs Report: Revisions Have Turned Negative

According to the BLS, the economy added 372k jobs in June. This exceeded the 250k market expectations and seems to indicate the labor market is more resilient than the rest of the economy which the Atlanta Fed currently forecasts as being already in recession. While resiliency is a positive sign for the economy, a strong […]

Yearly Trade Deficit Approaches $1T

The May trade deficit came in at -$86B. This was another MoM decline but the monthly deficit is still significantly larger than it was at any point before 2022 as shown below. One of the biggest concerns is the Services Surplus contracting by 8.1%.

COTs Report Shows the Most Neutral Precious Metals Market in Years

The technical analysis last weekend highlighted that gold looks to be in a bottoming structure. Despite the sell-off this week, $1800 held, which could be another indication that gold is in the process of bottoming, with some final weak hands getting pushed out of the market. Please note: the COTs report was published 7/3/2022 for the period […]

Comex Results: Gold and Silver Fail to Deliver

Both silver and gold had their weakest COMEX delivery months in several years. Gold started July delivery with 937 contracts outstanding. This is the lowest level since November of last year and the second-lowest since the start of Covid (see figure 2).