Peter's Blog

September Trade Deficit Smashes June Record by 10.5%

The September trade deficit smashed the record set just last June. September 2021 charted a total trade deficit of -$80.9 billion. That was up a massive 11.2% over the August trade deficit of -$72.8 billion and crushed the previous June record of -$73.2 billion by over 10.5%.

Hedge Funds Increase Net Longs 180% in Gold and 726% in Silver During October

Hedge funds closed shorts and went long in both gold and silver in October. Please note: the COTs report was published 10/29/2021 for the period ending 10/26/2021. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders analysis last month highlighted the potential over-extension of the shorts leading to a rebound. This proved to […]

November Comex Delivery Analysis

I reported last week that Comex delivery activity was looking very quiet in both gold and silver. The results for November are very weak. That being said, October and November are historically slow months, so the real test will come in December. This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the […]

Did the Fed Experiment With a Mini-Taper and Fail?

The Federal Reserve has slightly slowed its asset purchases over the last few months. Was this a trial mini-taper? If so, the results are not good news for the central bankers over at the Fed. The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.56 trillion. That’s up by $108 billion from the prior month-end, but down over […]

Money Supply Grows Almost 10% Annualized and Nears $21 Trillion

In the latest period, M2 increased by $163 billion and sits just shy of $21 trillion. This represents a 0.78% MoM increase which annualizes to 9.8%. This is below last month’s rise of $254B and last September’s rise of $223B.

Fiscal Spending Up 18.7% MoM and 4.1% YoY

The federal budget deficit for September 2021 was $61.5 billion, down from the $171 billion in August. Even though the deficit fell 64% MoM, it was driven primarily by receipts. Spending was up 18.7% MoM but receipts were up 71.2% driven by a surge in corporate and individual taxes.

Price Analysis: Gold Diverges from Bonds as Critical Test Looms at $1800

The analysis last month showed that selling exhaustion may be near in the gold market. Since then, gold continues to be range-bound between $1750 and $1800 running up against both solid resistance and support. Meanwhile, silver has shown a mini-breakout. The $1800 level for gold is in play this week and could open the door for […]

Comex Countdown: Quiet Before the Storm?

Both gold and silver are seeing quieter activity in Comex contracts. This is not atypical for October and November which are slow months in the lead up to December. This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Gold and Silver Comex Vaults Both See 1% Fall in Total Inventory

Both physical gold and silver have been draining from Comex vaults this year. There was a 1% decline in stocks of both metals over the last month. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze […]

A More Accurate CPI: Up .97% MoM and 7.1% YoY

The CPI data for September came in hotter than expected at 0.4%. That pushed the yearly gain to 5.4%. But an honest CPI calculation would come in even hotter. I am doing something different this month. In past reviews of the CPI, I typically take the BLS data and recalculate the values to get a more […]