Peter's Blog

Comex Delivery Results: Will Momentum Continue in January?

As reported last week, Comex January’s open interest activity was looking strong in silver and modest in gold. The initial results are promising, especially given the probability contracts will open mid-month for immediate delivery. This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Has the Taper Finally Started? Who Will Fill the Massive Gap?

While on the surface, it appears the Federal Reserve asset purchase taper has started, it’s not as easy to prove when you dig into the details. The Fed is certainly not being as aggressive as they promised, and for good reason. As the Fed leaves the bond market, who will fill the gap? Since 2019, […]

November Money Supply: Similar and Different to November 1972

Despite talk about a war on inflation and a quantitative easing taper, the money supply continues to expand at a rapid clip, fanning the inflationary fire. M2 increased by $249.2B in November.

Comex Countdown: December Delivery Surges and January Looks Strong

Silver delivery in December surged to levels not seen since last spring and reversed the downward trend in place since last summer. This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

The Technicals for Gold: Yet Another Battle at $1800

Gold looked very strong through mid-November. Trends in September and October had been pointing to a breakout. The market delivered sending gold up through $1870. Unfortunately, hard resistance kept the bulls in check, despite repeated attempts to breakthrough. The previous price analysis presumed that a Brainard nomination at the Fed would be the catalyst needed to break through $1880. […]

Comex Stock Report: JP Morgan Refill the Coffers

Gold inventories in Comex vaults increased for only the second time since February this year. This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock/inventory data at the Comex to show the physical movement of […]

Federal Tax Revenues Surge 20% – Will it Last?

The federal government continues to run big budget deficits as spending skyrockets. Increasing tax revenues are the only thing keeping the deficits from blowing up even further. But how long will this tax windfall last?

Expectations Are Finally High Enough for Sky High Inflation

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for November was .76% month over month, with a non-seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.81%. These numbers were generally in line with mainstream expectations that have finally gotten high enough to match the blistering hot inflation numbers coming out month after month.

Data Anomaly Causes October Trade Deficit to Shrink

The October trade deficit fell but the drop was primarily due to a data anomaly. October 2021 charted a total trade deficit of -$67.1 billion. It was the lowest trade deficit since April 2021. Month-on-month, the trade deficit fell 17% from the record set in September.

US Debt: The Landscape Has Changed and the Fed Can Do Nothing About it

Similar to August and September, the total national debt has not increased due to the current debt ceiling that’s in place. Similar to August, the Treasury has raided public retirement accounts to continue funding government spending (light green bar below). Looking at the bigger picture, Covid has forever shifted the landscape of US Debt.