Peter's Blog

While Fed Talks About Taper, Balance Sheet Grows $111 Billion in August

The Fed balance sheet stands at $8.33 trillion, up $111 billion from the prior month-end. The chart below shows how the Fed Balance sheet has grown by instrument over the last 18 months. The major surge from COVID can be clearly seen as $2.5T was added within 2 months. The monthly changes since then reflect […]

Money Supply Growth Rebounds But Trend Is Down

M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of money in the financial system. Historically, the term inflation was defined as an expansion of the money supply that generally led to higher prices. Therefore increases in M2 is the measure of inflation. This analysis reviews the changes in money supply as a potential indication of future […]

September 21 Comex Delivery Countdown: Gold Shows Life, Silver Mixed

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex set for September 21, 2021. See the article What is the Comex for more detail.

Aug 2021 Technical Analysis: Gold & Silver Bullish or Bearish?

The price of gold and silver can be driven by many variables both technical and fundamental. Fundamental drivers include Fed meetings/speeches, its balance sheet, inflation data, jobs numbers, market risk appetite, etc. This analysis examines some of the more technical factors driving prices (e.g. Comex OI, Miners price action, technical price action). The CFCT Cots report can […]

Comex Inventory Aug: Gold Slowly Drains But Silver Surges

This analysis focuses on gold and silver within the Comex/CME futures exchange. See the article What is the Comex? for more detail. The charts and tables below specifically analyze the physical stock data at the Comex. This is different than the delivery countdown that looks to see how many contracts will stand for delivery each month. Instead, it shows […]

US Budget Deficit Up 73% in July as Tax Season Ends

The US government ran yet another massive budget deficit in July. The shortfall was particularly larger on a month-on-month basis with tax season ending and the flow of money into the Treasury slowing. The following analysis puts digs deeper into the numbers and puts them into some historical context.

July CPI: Many Price Categories Are Still Increasing

For the first time this year, CPI data came in within expectations. Many in the mainstream took this as a sign “transitory” inflation might be cooling. But many prices continue to increase. The BLS Consumer Price Index (CPI) has become one of the most anticipated data points each month. The CPI has become a controversial […]

Government Jobs Account for Nearly a Quarter of July Gains

The BLS provides an employment picture of the US on the first Friday of every month. It estimates how many jobs were added or subtracted by sector. While some of the assumptions may be controversial (e.g. the birth/death model) and job numbers are prone to revisions, it remains the most widely anticipated statistic each month by […]

Total US Debt Shrinks by $101 Billion into Debt Ceiling Saga

“Just because something is inevitable, does not make it imminent, but eventually the future arrives” The US Government is on an unsustainable debt trajectory. Even though the Federal Reserve has acknowledged this fact, most mainstream pundits consider it a distant problem or even not an issue at all. They argue that debt fears have raged […]

June Trade Deficit Sets New Record of $75.7 Billion

The US Trade Balance shows the deficit and surplus of US trade for Imports and Exports. A deficit occurs when imports are greater than exports. When the Trade Balance is in deficit (which it has been for decades), it accounts for one of the two components of the Twin Deficits. The Fiscal Deficit accounts for […]