Peter's Blog

Inflation is Proving to be Quite Sticky

This analysis takes the BLS inflation data and recalculates the percentage changes at the category level to get unrounded numbers. The total number ties to the BLS, but it gives more detail at the granular level.

Jobs: Massive Revisions and Household Survey Tell the Real Story

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Fed Balance Sheet Shrinks by Smallest Amount in a Year

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. The analysis concludes that the resulting lack of Treasury demand is likely another reason Yellen is betting $2T on lower interest rates… she has […]

Money Supply Growth Continues to Support the Stock Market

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

Comex Delivery Volumes Reach Highest Levels in Months

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more details on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.).

Federal Budget: Interest Payments Reach $750B

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers every month. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going, and the surplus or deficit. This month saw a $22B deficit.

Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. 

Janet Yellen Bets $2T that Rates Will NOT be Higher For Longer

A Major Trend Change  In 2023, the Treasury added $2.6T to the national debt. While that number alone should be enough to scare anyone, the details reveal something even more concerning. $2T of it, or 77%, was financed entirely with short-term Treasury Bills maturing in less than a year. The chart below shows the debt […]

Fed Misses the Target Again

The Fed managed to reduce its balance sheet by $45 billion last month. The majority of this was in Treasuries of 1-5 year maturities with a reduction of $55B. The next biggest reduction was in mortgage-backed securities MBS totaling $20 billion. This fell short of the target of $35 billion. In fact, the Fed has […]

Rebound in Money Supply Will Prove Too Little, Too Late

Seasonally Adjusted Money Supply in May increased $131B. This is the first growth in adjusted M2 since last July and the largest increase since December 2021.