Peter's Blog

Who Will Fix The National Debt? It Looks Like Nobody

The FY2020 budget deficit came in at $3.13 trillion. At some point, the US government will have to reckon with the debt and spending. But according to recent analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Budget, neither Trump nor Biden appear prepared to do so. In fact, its analysis shows Trump would only be […]

How Long Before This Time Bomb Blows Up?

When governments started locking down economies in response to the coronavirus pandemic, the Federal Reserve sprung into action. The central bank immediately cut interest rates to zero and launched what we’ve called “QE infinity.” Since then, the Fed has ballooned its balance sheet by nearly $3 trillion and increased the money supply at a record […]

Money Out of Thin Air: Exchanging Nothing for Something

In response to any economic downturn, the Federal Reserve cranks up the money printing press. The reaction to the economic chaos caused by the government response to the coronavirus pandemic was no different. The Fed launched what many have called “QE infinity,” and has increased the money supply at a record pace. A lot of […]

Fed’s Extreme Measures Are a Very Bad Thing

During a recent 60 Minutes interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there is “no limit” to what the Fed can do. Indeed, the central bank has pulled out all the stops. But while the actions of the central bank are extreme, we’ve seen them operate out of this playbook before, if not at this level. […]

The Fed Is All Hat and No Cattle

In response to the coronavirus economic lockdown, the Fed pulled out all the stops, launching what amounts to QE infinity. And there is no end in sight. During a recent 60 Minutes interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said there is “no limit” to what the Fed can do. This is the same “cure” the […]

Why Should We Care About Negative Interest Rates?

Are negative interest rates in our future? Jerome Powell says absolutely not. But Jerome Powell also once said balance sheet reduction was on autopilot and that the Federal Reserve wasn’t going to cut interest rates. What the Fed chair says today doesn’t necessarily line up with what the Fed chair does tomorrow. In fact, the […]

A Did Not Cause B

A = coronavirus. B = economic meltdown. A caused B. That’s the mainstream narrative when it comes to the economic pain we’re feeling right now. But in reality, A did not cause B. B was in the works long before A came along.

Bailouts Destabilize the Economy and Inflate Asset Prices

President Trump recently signed a $2 trillion stimulus bill, ostensibly to support the economy through the coronavirus crisis. Pundits hailed it as a great bipartisan accomplishment that will help ease the pain of this economic slowdown. Of course, there will still be pain. And the government stimulus may actually cause more pain than it eases […]

The Central Bank Playbook Is Played Out

The Federal Reserve launched QE infinity this week. The Fed has committed to buy an “unlimited” amount of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. But that’s not all. The central bank also announced it will buy some corporate bonds for the first time ever. In effect, this is money-printing on a massive scale. And of course, […]

Memo to President Trump: Cut Tariffs Not Interest Rates

As the stock market reeled, the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points this week. It was the first time the Fed has cut rates between meetings since December 2008, when it made a similar move in response to the financial crisis. But that wasn’t enough for President Trump. Immediately after the announcement, the […]