Peter's Blog

Upward CPI Revisions Further Undercut Disinflation Narrative

CPI came in hotter than expected in January and threw cold water on the “disinflation” narrative that was gaining steam in the mainstream. Less-reported were the revisions of past CPI data. These undercut that narrative even further. The CPI data for October, November and December were all revised higher.

The Dark Side of January’s Big Retail Sales Print

Retail sales came in much stronger than expected in January after declining the previous two months. Mainstream financial media pundits immediately declared that this “jump in consumer spending” was a good sign for the economy. The Wall Street Journal called the robust sales report “evidence that US economic growth picked up at the start of […]

Billionaire John Paulson: You Need Gold Not Dollars

Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said you’re better off owning gold than dollars. Why? Because he thinks the dollar is set up for long-term depreciation as the world drifts toward dedollarisation.

Chinese Gold Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2018

China imported 1,343 tons of gold in 2022, the highest import level since 2018. Total gold imports for the year were up 64% over 2021. China ranks as the world’s biggest gold consumer.

Fiscal 2023 Budget Deficit Already Approaching a Half-Trillion Dollars

Just four months into fiscal 2023 and the US federal budget deficit is already approaching half a trillion dollars. This is a big problem for the Federal Reserve that few people seem to be talking about.

Bill Introduced in Wisconsin House Would Repeal Sales Tax on Gold and Silver Bullion

A bill introduced in the Wisconsin Senate would create a state sales tax exemption on the sale of gold and silver bullion. By effectively repealing the sales tax, the bill would relieve some of the tax burden on investors, and take a step toward treating precious metal bullion as money instead of a commodity.

Consumer Debt Increase Slows in December But Americans Still Relying on Credit Cards

Consumer debt grew at a slower pace in December, but Americans continued to rely heavily on credit cards to keep up with high price inflation.

Shrinking Money Supply Undercuts “Soft Landing” Narrative

The better-than-expected non-farm payroll report for January along with the smaller interest rate hike delivered by the Federal Reserve at its February meeting increased optimism that the central bank can bring price inflation back to 2% without tanking the economy. But the shrinking money supply undercuts this soft landing narrative.

Central Bank Gold Reserves Chart Biggest Increase Since 1950 in 2022

Central banks closed out 2022 with reported net purchases of 28 tons of gold in December. Including large unreported purchases, this brought total central bank gold buying in 2022 to 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, and the 13th straight year of net central bank […]

Gold Mine Production Up Modestly in 2022 But Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Peak

Gold mine production was up modestly in 2022 as mining operations normalized post-pandemic. But mine output still hasn’t returned to the peak we saw in 2018, boosting speculation that we have possibly reached “peak gold.”