Peter's Blog

Another Inflation Warning: Import-Export Prices Rise Faster Than Expected

In another sign of rapidly accelerating price inflation, import-export prices rose much faster than expected in May. Import prices were up 1.1% month-on-month in May, and the Labor Department revised April’s increase from 0.7% to 0.8%. Projections for May were for a 0.7% increase. The actual number was higher than the high end of estimates.

Was This Fed Meeting Really “Hawkish?”

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its June meeting. While the central bank didn’t raise rates, the messaging coming out of the FOMC was widely viewed as hawkish. But was it really? We don’t think so. In fact, the Fed’s messaging was extremely dovish. And the fact that it continues to ignore inflation doesn’t bode well […]

Despite Tax Day the Federal Government Runs Another Massive Deficit in May

Typically, the US government runs a budget surplus in the month that tax returns come due. Not this year. Despite a surge in receipts, the federal government ran a $131.95 billion deficit in May, continuing the trend of overspending and ballooning budget shortfalls. The federal budget deficit for fiscal 2021 now stands at $2.06 trillion […]

The Fed Is Spoon-Feeding Us a Lie

The CPI data came in higher than expected again in May. Looking at the trend, this should cast some serious doubt on the notion that inflation is “transitory.” Price data has come out hotter than expected every month this year. But the market reaction appears to be the exact opposite. The worse than expected CPI […]

This Surging Inflation Is Anything But Transitory

We got the May Consumer Price (CPI) Index data last week. Once again, it came in hotter than expected. In this article, we break down the data and show that this surge of inflation is anything by transitory. In the first place, it’s important to remember that the CPI is reverse-engineered to mask inflation. It […]

Inflation Isn’t a Supply Chain Problem; It’s a Money Problem

High inflation is the worst-kept secret out there, but the government, central bankers and financial media have all downplayed the threat. The folks at the Federal Reserve keep telling us that rising prices are “transitory,” the product of a robust and fast-moving post-pandemic economic recovery. One of the reasons often given for rising prices is […]

Central Banks Continue to Be Bullish on Gold

Central banks added gold to their reserves in record amounts in 2018 and 2019, but buying slowed last year with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The slower pace has continued into 2021, but buying is ahead of last year as many countries continue to load up on the yellow metal. The World Gold Council […]

Oblivious Financial Media Downplays Inflation

Average Americans are worried about inflation, but the mainstream financial media doesn’t think they should be. Even though inflation is a hot topic, the conversation seems to primarily center around the notion that inflation is overblown. In this article, we explain why this mainstream media spin downplaying inflation is dead wrong.

Gold Flowing Into ETFs Again

In 2020, gold-backed ETFs recorded record net inflows of gold. Funds added nearly 231 more tons in 2020 than they did during the previous record year (2009/646 tons). But with declines in the price of gold and investors pivoting to riskier investments as economies improve, we’ve seen net outflows of gold from ETFs over the […]

The Demise of the Dollar?

Last week, Russia announced plans to completely eliminate dollars and dollar-denominated assets from its sovereign wealth fund. Is this another sign of erosion of dollar dominance? The news from Russia dovetails with a warning by billionaire fund manager Stanley Druckenmiller that the dollar could cease to be the world’s reserve currency within the next 15 […]