Peter's Blog

More Cause for Concern: Retail Sales Tank

We have yet another reason to be concerned about the direction of the US economy. Earlier this month, we reported that the ISM index of national factory activity for September came in under 50 for the second month in a row. This indicates that manufacturing is contracting. The September ISM nonmanufacturing index wasn’t a whole […]

Is the National Debt Really Just Money We Owe to Ourselves?

The national debt continues to spiral upward. It increased by another $1.2 trillion in fiscal year 2019. But Paul Krugman says it’s not that big of a deal. He downplayed the national debt in a tweet, claiming emphatically that “DEBT IS MONEY WE OWE TO OURSELVES.” This encapsulates a common Keynesian argument. Debt can’t really burden […]

Are Americans Close to Maxing Out Their Credit Cards?

Consumers continued to pile on debt in August, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve. But credit card debt fell slightly, raising a troubling question: are consumers close to maxing out the plastic? Total consumer credit grew by another $17.9 billion in August. That represents an annualized increase of 5.2% and pushes […]

Gold: An Anchor of Trust

Central banks globally added a net 57.3 tons of gold in August, continuing a gold-buying spree that’s been going on for months. Countries like Russia and China are seeking to minimize exposure to the US dollar and undermine the ability of the US to weaponize the greenback as a foreign policy tool. But there are even […]

Fed Set to Launch “Massive” Bond-Buying Program — In Other Words QE

The Federal Reserve is set to begin what a MarketWatch article called a “massive” bond-buying program. Jerome Powell announced the program last Tuesday and the central bank released more details about the plan on Friday. The Federal Reserve will buy $60 billion in short-term Treasury bills each month. According to a statement, the purchases will […]

CBO Estimates FY2019 Federal Budget Deficit Was Just A Hair Under $1 Trillion

The budget deficit for fiscal year 2019 came in just a hair under $1 trillion according to the Congressional Budget Office estimate. Even if it does come in under the trillion-dollar mark, it would still rank as biggest deficit since 2012. The budget shortfall has only eclipsed $1 trillion four times, all during the aftermath of […]

Central Bank Gold-Buying Ramps Up Again

The central bank gold-buying spree shows no signs of letting up. In fact, it ramped up again in August after ebbing slightly in July, according to the latest data released by the World Gold Council. After a relatively modest net increase of 13.9 tons in July, central banks globally took in a net 57.3 tons […]

The Plight of the Unicorn: The Bubble Bursts

The unicorns are dying. Markets seemed to really wake up to the plight of the unicorn when WeWork aborted its much-anticipated IPO, but the air started coming out of the unicorn bubble long before WeWork’s IPO demise. Unicorns are privately held companies valued over $1 billion. Companies like Lyft, Chewie, Uber and WeWork were the […]

ETF Gold Holdings Hit All-Time Record High

ETF gold holding reached all-time highs in September. Globally, gold-backed ETFs added 75.2 tons of metal to their holdings last month, according to the most recent data released by the World Gold Council. That brought total gold holdings to 2,808 tons, eclipsing the previous record set back in 2012 when the price of gold was […]

China’s Most Recent Gold-Buying Spree Tops 100 Tons

China has accumulated more than 100 tons of gold since it resumed buying the yellow metal last December in a quest to diversify its reserves away from the US dollar. The People’s Bank of China added another 5.9 tons of gold to its hoard in September, according to data on its website reported by Bloomberg. […]