Jobs: Household Survey and Downward Revisions Paint a Much Bleaker Employment Picture
The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.
Current Trends
The jobs report showed a modest increase of 139k jobs on Friday. While neither bad or good, this number deviated substantially from the Household Survey which showed a loss of 700k jobs!
As can be seen below, the deviation in these two reports has been happening for a long time.
Figure: 1 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Monthly
For the year, the Household Survey is significantly higher due to the data anomaly in January. However, if we removed the data correction in January, the Household Survey would actually show a loss of 600k.
Figure: 2 Primary Report vs Household Survey – Annual
Switching to the headline report…
The BLS publishes the data behind their Birth/Death assumptions (formation of new business). In May, there were 200k jobs assumed into existence This is on the heels of an April figure that assumed 393k jobs into existence based on the idea that new companies are starting. These are very big assumptions!
Figure: 3 Primary Unadjusted Report with Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
For the year, the birth death assumption is positive against a negative number for actuals.
Figure: 4 Primary Unadjusted Report with Birth Death Assumptions – Monthly
Digging Into the Headline Report
The 139k jobs number was accompanied by a flat unemployment rate at 4.2%. We also saw last month drop from 177k to 147k, a drop of 17%.
Figure: 5 Change by sector
Jobs by Category
When looking over the last 12-month trend, this month was half above and half below trend.
Figure: 6 Current vs TTM
The table below shows a detailed breakdown of the numbers. The table also shows that the Government numbers were negative at the federal level and positive at a state and local level.
Figure: 7 Labor Market Detail
Revisions
The chart below shows how the jobs data has been revised. So far, every month this year has been revised lower by a significant margin.
Figure: 8 Revisions
Over the last twelve months, jobs have been revised down by about 21.8k per month and revised lower by 58.3k over the last three months!
Figure: 9 Revisions
More Detail in the Household Survey
Another level of detail in the Household report shows full-time vs part-time job holders. This month shows that over 600k full-time jobs were lost.
Figure: 10 Full Time vs Part Time
Historical Perspective
The chart below shows data going back to 1955.
Figure: 11 Historical Labor Market
The labor force participation rate is still well below the highs before the Global Financial Crisis. This month it increased slightly to 62.4%.
Figure: 12 Labor Market Distribution
Conclusion
No doubt, the two major takeaways from this report are:
- The Household Survey continues to underperform dramatically
- Downward Revisions have reached almost 60k per month the last three months
When looking at a slightly weak jobs report, these two additional facts point to a much bleaker job picture than what is being presented on the surface.
