CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money is Not Driving this Bus
Please note: the CoTs report was published 9/26/2025 for the period ending 9/23/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.
The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will always be zero, but the report shows who is positioned long or short. Historically, Hedge Funds (Managed Money) dominate the price action in both Gold and Silver.
Gold
Current Trends
Below shows net positioning for the 5 main groups of futures holders. Net positioning reached multi-year highs last September and has not yet reached that height yet. While open interest is on the higher side, it is not yet on the extreme side.
Figure: 1 Net Position by Holder
Managed Money has been in complete control of the price action for years, driving the spikes in both directions. The overall upward trend is beyond the control of Managed Money but the short-term moves are very much tied to the action of Managed Money.
That has changed in 2025 as the Managed Money group has only added modestly to their positions as the price has soared higher. The latest up-move saw Managed Money maintain nearly flat positioning. In fact, total contracts are slightly down while gold has climbed $300 in the last 4 weeks.
Figure: 2 Managed Money Net Position
Weekly Activity
Managed Money has been auspiciously quiet over the last several weeks.
Figure: 3
The activity in the options market has picked up from the lows in 2023, but it is still below the recent peak in 2020.
Figure: 4 Options Positions
Silver
Current Trends
Silver had been highly correlated to the action in managed money, but has diverged in the recent explosive move up.
Figure: 5 Net Position by Holder
Managed Money was behind the initial move up in August. However, similar to gold, managed money is not behind the latest move.
Figure: 6 Managed Money Net Position
Weekly Activity
Again, similar to gold, activity the last few weeks have been incredibly muted.
Figure: 7 Net Change in Positioning
The options market is a different story however. There is clearly something going on here. It’s too early to tell, but someone is making outsized positions in the options market.
Figure: 8 Options Positions
Conclusion
The table below captures what was explained above: in 2025, Managed Money has been driving both the gold and silver market for years. That has broken down this year. The last time that happened was in 2020 when gold had the explosive up-move in Covid followed by a major consolidation period. It’s possible that Managed Money is sitting on the sidelines waiting for their time to pounce and short the current rally.
Regardless of what may happen in the future. This current rally is not being driven by Managed Money. This is not the norm. So, either:
- Something has changed in the market, which can be seen in the Comex market (see previous article)
- The market has gotten out of control and Managed Money is biding their time to bring prices back in-line
Based on all the data, the market does not seem out of control. Both metals face two major milestones in the near future ($4,000 gold and $50 silver). It is likely we will get an answer sooner than later. The data says there is not much to be worried about, but that is definitely no guarantee. Stay on your toes.
Figure: 9 Correlation Table
