Peter's Blog

Hurricane Cleanup Will Stimulate the Economy? Not So Fast!

If the Keynesians are right, Hurricane Ian will create an economic boom here in Florida. After all, breaking windows creates demand and that stimulates the economy. And after this massive hurricane cut through Florida, there were a lot of broken windows — and much worse.

Collapse in Money Supply Is Still a Major Risk for the Market

Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

This Looks a Lot Like the Dot-Com Bust With One Big Difference — Inflation

This is starting to look a lot like the popping of the dot-com bubble with one big difference — inflation. Beginning in mid-June, we saw a significant bear market rally in stocks. But the recent declines have wiped out those gains and more. For instance, the Dow jumped 14% during the 2-month rally. By the […]

Gold Is One of the Best Performing Assets of 2022

Given historically high inflation, why haven’t we seen a big rally in gold and silver? There are a number of factors that have weighed on precious metals, but as the World Gold Council points out, it’s important to put gold and silver’s recent price movements in a broader perspective. In fact, gold has been one […]

The Student Loan Crisis: Economic Boom-Bust in a Microcosm

The student loan forgiveness program recently announced by President Joe Biden stirred up quite the political brouhaha. Progressives praised Biden for helping students burdened by overwhelming student loan debt. Conservatives decried it as an unfair giveaway. But as with most issues, the popular political debate misses the bigger picture. The student loan crisis was primarily […]

Feelings Trump Economics: Price Gouging Edition

Hurricane Ian is taking aim at Florida. That means there is already talk of “price gouging.” People have a visceral emotional reaction to people raising prices during a disaster. But it is nothing but feelz. In fact, “price gouging” serves an important economic function. Not allowing prices to rise actually causes more harm.

Calling the Fed’s Bluff: They are Holding a Losing Hand

The Fed has talked a big game lately. Many people (including me) assumed the Fed would fold a long time ago. There is a very good reason — the Fed will crush the economy and the US Treasury with higher interest rates. In reality, the Fed is holding a losing hand and trying to bluff […]

Peter Schiff: Jerome Powell Still Thinks He Can Pull Off the Impossible

Last week the Fed raised interest rates another 75 basis points and continued to insist it was fully committed to doing whatever it takes to bring inflation back down to 2%. In his podcast, Peter argued that Powell still thinks he can pull off the impossible. He can’t.

Peter Schiff: Biden Putting America at Risk to Prop Up His Own Image

Even as the August inflation data was coming out higher than expected, President Joe Biden was bragging about his “Inflation Reduction Act.” Peter Schiff appeared on NewsMax and argued that the president is putting Americans at risk just so he can improve his image as we approach election time.

Price Analysis: Support Becomes Resistance

The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson […]