Peter's Blog

Trade Deficits Aren’t the Problem – Unsound Money Is

Last week, the Supreme Court struck down the Trump administration’s unconstitutional and economically destructive tariffs. But, as the White House seeks to impose new trade restrictions through other avenues, it’s worth reexamining why trade policy and inflationary monetary policy typically go hand-in-hand. The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed […]

Fed is Adding $20B a Month to the Balance Sheet

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet As soon as the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening, they launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. As shown […]

Comex Silver Supplies Continue to Shrink Rapidly

The CME Comex is the Exchange where futures are traded for gold, silver, and other commodities. The CME also allows futures buyers to turn their contracts into physical metal through delivery. You can find more detail on the CME here (e.g., vault types, major/minor months, delivery explanation, historical data, etc.). The data below looks at […]

Money Supply Growth Stays Strong, This Will Continue Pushing Asset Prices Up in the Medium Term

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

CB Consumer Confidence: Americans Still Eye Price Pressures

U.S. consumers perked up a bit in February, but the mood is hardly euphoric. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2 points to 91.2, recouping only a slice of January’s slide. Households feel slightly less threatened by recession, yet they remain uneasy about paychecks, persistent inflation, and a job market that looks sturdy on […]

Waller Calls March Rate Move a “Coin Flip” as Jobs Data Diverge 

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told the National Association for Business Economics on February 23rd that the March 17th–18th Federal Open Market Committee decision is “close to a coin flip.” After three straight 25-basis-point cuts since September, the Fed paused in January—over Waller’s dissent—and left its policy rate near 4.75 percent. He argued that “the […]

Gold Just Issued a Warning the Fed Can’t Ignore

Gold just broke above $5,100 — and almost no one is talking about it. While politicians argue over tariffs, the real story is accelerating stagflation. GDP growth collapsed from 4.4% to 1.4%. Core PCE inflation is rising again. The Fed is openly debating rate cuts while inflation runs 50% above target. This is not a […]

Peter Schiff: A Weak Dollar Means Higher Prices

On Thursday’s episode of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter covers a range of market signals that, in his view, point toward rising prices and constitute even more reason to use sound money. He highlights strength in gold, a sharp bounce in oil, and the economic forces he believes will push the dollar lower: runaway federal […]

Why Boom-Bust Cycles Validate Austrian Theory

One criticism of the Austrian School’s theory of recessions is that it doesn’t account for the expectations of entrepreneurs, who can anticipate central bank actions which precipitate economic busts. But, as Austrian economist Joe Salerno argues, this criticism betrays a fundamental misunderstanding of how recessions occur. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

The Trust Paradox

Trust in all forms of government has greatly dropped in the US and nationally, but it might actually be a much-needed reflection of reality rather than a sad decline of the state of our civilization. Trust makes all actions of the one trusted possible with far less energy and resources. Garnering support becomes much easier […]