Peter's Blog

Retail Sales Unexpectedly Dropped in May

Retail sales unexpectedly dropped in May, casting doubt on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s “the American consumer is healthy” narrative.

Will This Be the Last Move in the Fed’s Inflation Fight?

The Federal Reserve took a more aggressive swing at red-hot inflation at its June FOMC meeting, raising interest rates by 3/4%. It was the biggest hike since 1994. The question is will this be the last swing at inflation?

Ron Paul: Should We “Respect” the Fed?

The Federal Reserve doesn’t have a very good track record. It was wrong about transitory inflation. It was wrong about peak inflation. And it’s almost certainly wrong in thinking the economy is strong enough to withstand tighter monetary policy to fight inflation. But President Joe Biden trusts the Fed. The cornerstone of his inflation-fighting plan […]

Producer Prices Continue to Rise at Near-Record Pace

Producer prices continue to rise at a near-record pace, further undercutting the notion that we’ve reached “peak inflation.”

Is Corporate Greed Behind High Gas Prices?

There is a meme floating around social media that seems to prove greedy corporations – specifically oil companies – are the root cause of inflation. How does this meme stack up to reality? Short answer — it doesn’t.

Consumer Sentiment at Record Lows as Inflation Empties Wallets

Consumer sentiment plunged to record lows in June. The plummeting consumer sentiment numbers surprised mainstream analysts but they shouldn’t have given Americans are taking a pay cut month after month thanks to red-hot inflation.

Back to Budget Deficits Despite Surging Government Revenue

After running a budget surplus in April thanks to an influx of tax-day tax receipts, the federal government reverted back to running a deficit in May. The budget deficit was $66.22 billion last month, according to the monthly Treasury statement. That raises the current fiscal year deficit to $426.2 billion with four months left to […]

Peak Inflation Was a Fairytale Just Like Transitory Inflation

Inflation wasn’t transitory. And inflation hasn’t peaked. It’s more like peak inflation was transitory.

CBO Does Not Expect Revenue Surge to Last

After running the largest monthly surplus ever in April, the Treasury was back to running deficits in May. The Federal government spent $455B in May and collected $389B in taxes, which resulted in a net deficit of $66B.

Peak Inflation Still Ahead as 97.5% of the CPI is Above the 12-Month Average

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for May came in scorching hot at 0.98% MoM and 8.62% YoY, beating expectations of 0.7% and 8.3% respectively. All prices rose in May with 9 of 11 categories rising faster than the 12-month trend, representing 97.5% of the total CPI.