Peter's Blog

ETFs Globally Continued to Add Gold in July

Gold continues to flow into ETFs. After increasing holdings by 40 tons in the second quarter, funds globally added another 11.1 tons of gold in July, according to the latest data from the World Gold Council.

Central Banks Have Created the Mother of All Bubbles

The Federal Reserve and other central banks around the world have pumped trillions of dollars into the global economy and depressed interest rates to artificially low levels to blow up the mother of all bubbles. The recent acquisition of Afterpay by Square reveals the extent of this global bubble economy that will inevitably have to […]

Rising Production Costs Undercut “Transitory” Inflation Narrative

In yet another sign inflation might not be transitory, over 85% of manufacturers reported increasing prices in July in the most recent manufacturing ISM report. At some point, producers will have to take steps to mitigate the impact of rising prices. That means passing costs on to consumers, cutting costs, or some combination of the […]

Household Debt Charts Biggest Increase Since 2007

With the stimulus checks long ago spent, Americans have gone back to buying things the old-fashioned way – on credit. Household debt surged by $313 billion in the second quarter to nearly $15 trillion, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Household Debt and Credit Report. It was the biggest quarterly dollar increase […]

Q2 Central Bank Gold Buying 73% Above 5-Year Average

Central banks globally added a net 199.2 tons of gold in the second quarter of 2021. That was the highest level of quarterly net purchases since Q2 2019 and 73% above the five-year quarterly average, according to data compiled by the World Gold Council.

Fake Economic Growth and Stealthy Government Default

Inflation continues to run rampant and it’s distorting the entire economy. Rising prices create the illusion of economic growth. And they are also allowing the US government to stealthily default on its massive debt. This is not a sign of a strong economy.

Shrinking Rolls of Toilet Paper? Blame the Fed!

We’ve been talking a lot about rising prices. The CPI has come in hotter than expected every month this year. We’re paying more to buy less. We see the impacts of inflation on price tags, but sometimes it squeezes us more subtlety. It’s known as “shrinkflation.”

Does the Big GDP Miss Signal Looming Stagflation?

GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation? While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly […]

CFTC COTS Analysis July 2021

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (COTs) report is released once a week and shows a breakdown of open interest by trader category. As discussed in the gold/silver pricing analysis, Open Interest can be a major factor in the metal price. The CFTC breaks down open interest by:

Comex Delivery Results: August 2021 Contract

This analysis focuses on gold and silver data provided by the Comex/CME Group. The Comex (or CME Group) is a global derivatives market that allows for trading in futures contracts. They allow two parties (a long and a short) to speculate or hedge in specific commodity markets and guarantee the transaction in the process. The majority […]