Peter's Blog

BOJ Flags Trade-War Headwinds, Hints at Rate Hikes

Japan’s central bankers are juggling a stubbornly hot CPI, cooling exports, and a fresh volley of U.S. tariffs—all while investors pile into gold. In its July 30th-31st policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) conceded the economy “has recovered moderately,” yet warned that escalating trade friction is set to sap growth “in the near term.” […]

Interest Rates Should Be Higher, Not Lower

Along with Trump, market watchers are salivating for rate cuts. But rates should be higher, not lower—and in a free market, they would be. In a free market, interest rates are determined by the supply and demand for credit. Savers provide capital (supply) while borrowers like businesses, consumers, and governments create demand. Rates would reflect […]

Q2 Gold Demand Tops 1,200 Tonnes

Gold’s momentum refused to cool in the second quarter of 2025, with total demand—over-the-counter trades included—hitting 1,249 tonnes, up 3 percent year-on-year. In dollar terms the jump was far more dramatic: US$132 billion changed hands, a 45 percent leap to an all-time quarterly record. The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) afternoon fix set a fresh […]

Jobs Stall: July Payroll Gain Just 73K

The summer labor market is losing momentum. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday that non-farm payrolls grew by only 73,000 in July, barely budging overall employment since April and capping two straight months of sharp downward revisions. The headline unemployment rate stayed at 4.2 percent—on paper a healthy figure—yet a closer look shows […]

Bessent Trying to Undo Yellen’s Poor Debt Management

Current Trends The government hit the debt ceiling back in January and has been pursuing extraordinary measures since. This usually means dipping into things like Civil Service Retirement funds to free up cash and avoid borrowing any more money. As the chart below shows, the debt balance has been pretty much net neutral for the […]

Jobs: Seven Straight Months of Downward Revisions

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Optimism Alone Can’t Fix the Economy

Many economists and businesses look to survey data to judge the state of the economy. These data can provide interesting insight and will certainly sway markets, but whether they can actually capture real economic phenomena is up for debate.

Challenging Secretary Bessent on the Fed’s Failures

Treasury Secretary Bessent recently expressed displeasure with the Fed, implying that he’s interested in investigating whether or not the Fed is successful in promoting price stability. If Bessent digs deep enough, he’ll realize that the Fed has been both utterly unsuccessful and damaging to the economy.

The Missing Golden Key to Development

While some still cling to the idea that economic and governmental development of Third World countries will come from external forces, it is becoming a much more widely accepted truth that the most robust long-term growth only comes when it is spurred by the countries themselves. Even when resources come from other countries, a great […]

Why Business Must Keep its Hands Out of Regulation

Even free of outside interest, the government would still create inefficiencies and have numerous conflicts of interest, but a recurring core of over regulation and poor governmental choices is interference by businesses. While there are many legal paths to this, they most often end very poorly for both citizens and most businesses. Business interference in […]