Peter's Blog

Central Bankers vs. The Dollar

If Donald Trump has his way and recent reports are accurate, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is considering stepping down from his position. While extremely rare, Fed Chairs resigning before the end of their term isn’t entirely unheard of. Powell’s obligations would ordinarily extend to May 2026.

Federal Budget: Government has its best quarter since 2022

The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in-depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit.

Get Ready for Big, Beautiful Inflation

As is the case with many new regulations, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had the opposite effect as what was implied by its name. President Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and bringing down prices.

Why Price Stability Is a Dangerous Illusion

One of the long-touted goals of central banking is “price stability,” which, in the minds of central bankers, means low and continuous inflation. Even if this goal wasn’t cover for inflationist policy, it’d still be important to note that “price stability” is actually an unachievable goal when properly understood.

Fed Governor Waller Defends $6.7 Trillion Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Dallas Fed podium Thursday to peel back the curtain on the central bank’s swollen balance sheet—and to argue that a slim-down is overdue but shouldn’t be draconian. Since 2007, Fed assets have ballooned from $870 billion (about 6 percent of U.S. GDP) to roughly $6.7 trillion, even […]

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]

Gold Sits at 28% on the Year as Tariff Clock Winds Down

Gold ended last week at a record-setting US $3,332 per ounce, up 1.8 % on the week and a blistering 28 % year-to-date. The metal’s march higher has come even as Wall Street cheers fresh equity highs and a softer dollar, underscoring bullion’s stubborn appeal as fiscal storm clouds gather. Yesterday’s price action was orderly—just […]

How Tariffs Erode Consumer Choice and Prosperity

Recent data shows the damaging effects of tariffs on the American economy. Protectionist policies make goods more expensive at home, but there’s another less-obvious consequence that also impoverishes Americans: reduced consumer choice.

Jobs: QCEW Shows 2024 Job Reports were the Biggest Overstatement in 15 years

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

ADP Logs Surprise 33,000 Job Drop 

Hiring hit the brakes in June, with the ADP National Employment Report showing U.S. private-sector payrolls shrinking by 33,000 positions—the first monthly contraction of 2025. Goods makers managed to eke out modest gains, but service industries bled jobs, and small businesses took the biggest hit. Wages, meanwhile, kept climbing faster than the official inflation gauges, […]