Peter’s Blog

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

In his latest podcast, Peter reviews April’s surprising turnaround in the stock market, explores the myths of tariff-driven economic patriotism, and exposes the contradictions in US currency policies. He also shares his skepticism about the delayed economic impacts of tariffs and comments on the intersection of political influence and wealth in Washington’s culture.

Tariffs are being pitched as a magic bullet to revive American manufacturing, pushing out foreign competitors to bring red, white, and blue factories humming back to life. It sounds great: tax imports to bring companies back to the States, and generate a flood of revenue in the process as jobs flood back to the heartland. […]

Free-marketers must be constantly vigilant in an age of economic fallacies, chief among them being the labor or cost theory of value. Promoted by Marx and the Classical Economists, this theory fails to explain market prices and the origin of money, and the results of its acceptance are catastrophic.

In the past three months, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen from 108 to below 99. This means the dollar has dropped in value relative to major foreign currencies by over 8% in just the past quarter. This is disastrous for those holding large amounts of uninvested cash. In just a short period, the […]

The United States has taken a very strong protectionist stance on global trade. With the recent tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which include 10% baseline duties on most imports, a staggering 145% on Chinese goods, and targeted tariffs on European and automotive imports, the debate over the nation’s trade policy has become highly contentious. […]

Everyone knows that discrimination is wrong. Of course, everyone in that circumstance would be assuming that discrimination was referring to judging people by their underlying traits, but it becomes very easy for the meaning of the word to take on a negative connotation that can be used to inform policy in unhelpful ways. Price discrimination […]

America’s economy contracted slightly in the first quarter of 2025, with real GDP slipping 0.3%, reversing from a solid 2.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. According to the advance estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the downturn was largely driven by surging imports and reduced government spending. Despite underlying resilience in […]

Although Jerome Powell appears temporarily safe from President Trump’s ire, it’s only a matter of time before the pressure to cut rates will ratchet up on the Fed. Indeed, Trump– like all other politicians– wants low interest rates to facilitate ever-increasing deficits and obscure the faultlines in the economy.

At the start of the 2008 financial crisis, the Federal Government reached out to one company they knew could handle the catastrophically managed Bear Stearns. They knew JPMorgan would be able to handle a massive administrative and financial challenge even as others faltered. JPMorgan still suffered from the 2008 crisis, but far less than most […]