Peter's Blog

Long Term Inflation Fears Simmer at 4%

Consumers may be breathing a small sigh of relief, but they’re hardly celebrating. The University of Michigan’s latest “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” update, released Friday, shows the median expectation for inflation over the next 5 years dipping to 4.0 % in June after topping out at 4.4 % in April. While that is […]

CFTC CoTs Report Confirms there is Little Froth in the Gold Market

Please note: the CoTs report was published 6/27/2025 for the period ending 6/24/2025. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

Powell Stalls, Tariffs Loom, and Consumers Turn Gloomy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday that the central bank is in no rush to move interest rates, even as fresh tariffs cloud the outlook and inflation remains sticky. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the […]

The 75,000 Page Horror Story

While most of the American government can be characterized by regulatory overgrowth, few areas loom larger in the public imagination than the Tax Code. This reputation is well earned, as the Tax Code seems to become more complicated each time people try to reform it. Hundreds of years of revisions have left American taxpayers in […]

Fed Critics’ Three Central-Banking Myths

Some free-marketers mistakenly believe that the Federal Reserve would be more effective if it operated in a different political environment or had more resources to control the monetary supply. Instead, as the Austrian school emphasizes, the problem is with central banking per se. Central planning never works, especially when the planning is over the money […]

GDP Turns Negative as Inflation Smolders

In a new report released today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shaved another three-tenths off first-quarter growth estimates, revealing that real U.S. GDP actually slipped 0.5 percent at an annual rate instead of inching ahead. The contraction follows a 2.4 percent gain in 2024’s closing quarter, marking the economy’s sharpest quarterly swing since the […]

Why Gold Based International Trade is No Brainer

With the recent strikes on Iran, the United States’ role on the international stage has become a much larger topic of conversation. No one seems sure of the America that will emerge from the tension between historically serving as the world’s policeman and more recently desiring to step back. Even this step back would still […]

Trump Demands Fed Easing to Finance Even Larger Deficits

While it’s correct to criticize the Federal Reserve for inevitably bungling monetary policy, the Trump administration is wrong to criticize Jerome Powell and the FOMC for failing to cut rates. Printing money, contrary to President Trumps belief, is never the answer.

13-Week Money Supply Growth Accelerates, Bucking Seasonal Trends

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

How We Protect the Fed From Its Own Consequences

While the Fed prints money endlessly, there is always the irresistible feeling that the effects of that printing are not felt in full. The money supply greatly increases and brings inflation in tow, yet life never gets as bad as we would expect it to. The fundamental shifting of money’s value should have an even […]