Peter's Blog

Government Job Numbers Make No Sense

Every month, we get government job reports that tell us the labor market is booming. Then we get an avalanche of mainstream headlines telling us that this is a sign the economy is just fine. But these government job numbers simply don’t make sense.

Have We Seen the Last Fed Rate Hike of This Cycle?

As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) put rate hikes on pause at the June meeting, although it indicated we should expect additional hikes before the end of the year. The question is how long will the pause last and will the next Fed move actually be a rate cut?

Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number

The CPI rose in May by 0.12%. Energy accounted for -0.25% of the move. This means without the move in Energy, the CPI would have risen by 0.37% which annualizes to a rate of 4.5%. This shows that inflation is still quite problematic.

The Inflation Tax Is Eating Your Lunch

How much is the inflation tax costing you? Based on calculations by public finance economist EJ Antoni, around $7,200 since January 2021 for the average family.

At Its Core Price Inflation Still Running Hot

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by the smallest annual amount in more than two years in May. This means the inflation fight is over and inflation lost, right? Not so fast.

Big May Shortfall Pushes 2023 Budget Deficit Well Over $1 Trillion

Congress “solved” the debt ceiling problem by effectively eliminating borrowing limits for the next two years. But it did nothing to address the underlying problem. And that underlying problem is painfully obvious when you look at the monthly budget deficits the federal government continues to run month after month. In May, the Biden administration piled […]

Silver Is Significantly Underpriced Given the Looming Supply Shortage

Given the current macroeconomic environment and the supply and demand dynamics, silver is significantly undervalued at $24 to $25 an ounce.

Will the Next Debt Ceiling Debate Conclude in Abolishment?

The Treasury has an open data platform where they publish all of the data related to the US Treasury. This includes debt, spending, revenue, etc. Different data sets are updated at different frequencies. The official US Debt is updated monthly (typically by the fourth business day). This data can be seen in the chart below.

High Interest Rates Not Stopping Americans from Running Up More and More Debt

Despite the high interest environment intended to slow down borrowing, American consumers continue to run deeper and deeper into debt as they cope with sticky inflation. Consumer credit spiked by another $20 billion in April, a 5.7% increase year on year, according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve.

A Surging National Debt Is Bullish for Gold

The debt ceiling drama ended with fake budget cuts and a shiny new credit card with no limit for the federal government. We can now expect a big surge in the national debt as the US government plays catch up after nearly six months up against its borrowing limit. So, how might this impact the […]