Peter's Blog

Mainstream Suddenly Realizes Raising Interest Rates in a World Buried in Debt Might Be a Problem

The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. But the US economy is buried under piles of debt. I’ve been asking how this is going to work for months. Apparently, the question has finally occurred to the mainstream. A CNBC article declared, “Fed rate hikes will intensify a global debt crisis, research warns.”

Consumer Debt Charts Biggest Gain in 20 Years

The Federal Reserve is talking about raising interest rates. Well, that’s going to be a big problem for American consumers who are running up debt at a torrid pace. This is yet another reason why the Fed can’t do what it’s claiming it will do. Consumer debt jumped 11% year-on-year in November, according to the […]

Treasury Adds $709B to the Debt in a Single Month

The debt ceiling was raised in December and the Treasury responded immediately, adding $709 billion in debt over the month. To be fair, $470 billion of this was non-marketable, as shown below. Note: Non-Marketable consists almost entirely of debt the government owes to itself (e.g., debt owed to Social Security or public retirement)

Abandoning the Gold Standard Undermined Labor Productivity

Labor market productivity has been dropping for decades. And you can trace the plunge back to the demise of the gold standard. US labor market productivity plummeted in the third quarter of 2021. Revisions to the data showed a 5.2% drop in productivity, even worse than the dismal initial reading last month. It was the […]

Retail Sales Disappoint Despite Surging Prices

In October, retail sales surged much higher than expected, rising 1.7%. The mainstream gushed over retail spending, asserting that it was a sign that the economy is booming. At the time, I argued that it wasn’t necessarily good news. Well, the news just got even worse. Retail sales in November disappointed, despite another big surge […]

I See Red! Consumer Debt Jumped Again in October

American consumers piled on more debt in October as inflation continues to squeeze their pocketbooks. Consumer debt grew by $16.9 billion, an annual increase of 4.6% (seasonally adjusted), according to the latest data released by the Federal Reserve. That raised total consumer debt to over $4.38 trillion.

I’m Dreaming of a Red Christmas?

It appears American consumers are going to have a red Christmas this year. Red — as in going deeper into debt.

Booming Retail Sales Don’t Necessarily Signal “Strong Economy”

Retail sales surged at a higher than expected rate in October, rising 1.7%. The mainstream reported this as fantastic news signaling a strong economy. American consumers are out there buying lots of stuff. The stock market rallied and gold fell. But the mainstream narrative isn’t giving you the full picture.

Treasury Binges in October, Adding Almost Half a Trillion in Debt

After all the drama, Congress finally did what everyone knew it would do.  It raised the debt ceiling by $480 billion in October. The Treasury wasted no time and quickly added $480 billion to the national debt in the second half of the month. With this new debt tagged on, if the Fed has to […]

As Prices Rise, Americans Turning to Credit Cards

American consumers piled on more debt in September as higher prices squeezed wallets. Consumer credit grew by $29.9 billion in September, bringing the total to $4.37 trillion, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. The increase in consumer debt nearly doubled the consensus estimate of a $15.5 billion increase.