Peter's Blog

Jobs: Household Report is Way Below a Weak Headline Number

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the headline number, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. 

Peter Schiff: Just One More Hyped Up Jobs Report

According to the latest non-farm payroll report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the US economy added 199,000 new jobs in November and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.7%. This was widely viewed as a “strong” jobs report. According to one mainstream analyst, the November employment data “portrays an economy that is easing toward […]

Government Job Numbers Make No Sense

Every month, we get government job reports that tell us the labor market is booming. Then we get an avalanche of mainstream headlines telling us that this is a sign the economy is just fine. But these government job numbers simply don’t make sense.

Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story

The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.

Multiple Factors Turn a Weak Employment Report Strong

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 256k jobs were added in April with major revisions down in previous months. Meanwhile, the Household Survey reported only 139k jobs in April, the lowest amount since November last year.

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories Below 12-month Trend

The BLS reported that 236k jobs were added in March. Similar to December and January, the Household survey greatly exceeded the Headline Report with 577k jobs added. The Household Survey was surprisingly strong given the current economic environment.

Household Survey is 40% Below Headline Number

As discussed last month, it is getting harder to take all the BLS employment data as fact. This month, some of the data is a bit closer in line, but the QECW report seemed to show a big deviation (more below).

History Rhymes: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Feb. 10, 2023

You’ve probably heard the saying that history might not repeat, but it often rhymes. If that’s true, looking back at the runup to the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession should cause concern. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey looks at some of the parallels between then and now. […]

Is It Time to Drop the “L” in the BLS?

By all measures, the latest job report absolutely blasted past expectations with one of the biggest upside surprises in recent memory. The current month came in at 517,000 jobs created. But even that massive figure was beaten by the latest Household Survey which showed 894k jobs created in January.