Peter's Blog

Two Truths and a Lie From Trump’s 2025 Macro Policy

Trump’s tariff regime has led to an extremely unique economic situation. While inflation for some goods is high, many other goods have little inflation, and new job creation is lagging. Any Keynesian economist could weasel their way around this, but it gives compelling evidence against the assumptions of their most revered models. The Phillips curve […]

The Fed Doubles Down on Easy Money: Rate Cuts Deepen as QT Comes to a Halt

To the relief of many market-movers, last week the FOMC voted to cut rates for the second time this year and announced that the Fed will begin maintaining its balance sheet starting in December. With this return to easy-money, Powell and the Fed are again attempting to paper over economic fault-lines created by their own […]

June Job Loss Signals Trouble Ahead

With another round of jobs data released last week, another revision to June’s numbers reveal two startling truths. First, jobs actually decreased in June, contrary to the initial estimates. Second, and arguably worse, the Trump administration’s cover-up of these numbers is as bad as critics thought. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

Jobs Mirage: BLS Slashes 911,000 Positions from the Economy

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a quiet bombshell on September 9, unveiling a preliminary benchmark revision that erased 911,000 jobs from March 2025 payroll tallies. The 0.6% markdown is roughly triple the average adjustment of the past decade and instantly casts doubt on months of breezy “resilient labor market” headlines. Almost the entire shortfall […]

ADP Logs Surprise 33,000 Job Drop 

Hiring hit the brakes in June, with the ADP National Employment Report showing U.S. private-sector payrolls shrinking by 33,000 positions—the first monthly contraction of 2025. Goods makers managed to eke out modest gains, but service industries bled jobs, and small businesses took the biggest hit. Wages, meanwhile, kept climbing faster than the official inflation gauges, […]

New York Manufacturing Slumps Again

New York’s manufacturing sector faced another difficult month, marking a consistent four-month decline according to the recent Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index fell sharply to -16.0 in June, emphasizing the continued contraction in regional economic activity. Despite the deteriorating conditions, there is […]

Jobs: Household Survey and Downward Revisions Paint a Much Bleaker Employment Picture

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

Jobs: Last Three Months Saw Downward Revisions of 57k on Average

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

 Jobs: A Decent Job Report Flew Way Under the Radar

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.

The Dangerous Redundancy

“The Fed’s modern statutory mandate, as described in the 1977 amendment to the Federal Reserve Act, is to promote maximum employment and stable prices.” These two requirements are commonly known as the dual mandate. These two requirements have arisen from the unique power that the US Fed has in comparison to most other central banks. […]