Peter's Blog

The Fed to Force Healthy Banks Into a Sinking Lifeboat

Federal regulators are plotting a course that could see America’s sturdiest banks tied to a sinking lifeboat. This plan, designed to compel banks to use the Federal Reserve’s discount window, aims to normalize the act of reaching for this financial lifeline amidst turbulent seas.  It’s as if the Fed is asking the healthiest swimmers to […]

Bonds Away: Rate Cuts and Junk Debt in 2024

After a delicate dance of interest rate increases, Jerome Powell has declared victory on inflation and says to expect looser monetary policy this year. But with junk bond spreads not widening nearly as much as one would expect during an era of economic tightening, you’ve got to wonder if money is still actually looser than the Fed’s […]

Never Ending War on Cash

In the last few decades, there has been a global shift towards a “cashless world,” a trend that continues to shape financial autonomy. Physical currency is becoming increasingly rare as the majority of the world’s money supply exists in electronic form. Governments and financial institutions are actively promoting a cashless society, raising concerns about individual […]

Inflation Persists As Fed Signals Rate Cuts

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently released two inflation reports highlighting inflation figures for December 2023. Here’s what they showed: 

Debt-Saddled Consumers Embracing Even More “Doom Spending”

In a disturbing (but unsurprising) trend, more than 1 out of 4 US consumers are throwing in the towel with defeatist “Doom Spending” sprees — despite already being saddled with crippling levels of debt. This behavior is akin to someone who, feeling overwhelmed, indulges excessively in a habit they know isn’t beneficial. In a similar vein, […]

Fed Misses the Target Again

The Fed managed to reduce its balance sheet by $45 billion last month. The majority of this was in Treasuries of 1-5 year maturities with a reduction of $55B. The next biggest reduction was in mortgage-backed securities MBS totaling $20 billion. This fell short of the target of $35 billion. In fact, the Fed has […]

Fed Reduces Treasury Bill Balance By Over $100B in May

The Fed reduced its balance sheet by $177 million last month. The majority of this was actually in Treasuries with less than 1-year maturity, totaling $102B. The next biggest reduction was in loans, totaling $40B.

Bank Term Funding Program Reaches New All-Time High

The Fed is still bailing out banks. The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) reached a new all-time high in April, suggesting that the banking crisis has not yet passed. And while the aggregate balance sheet looks to be shrinking, the detailed data shows it is more complex than that.

The Fed Prints $324B in March As QE Restarts

By now it should be common knowledge that the Fed has blown up its balance sheet rather quickly to combat the current banking crisis. As the chart below illustrates, the Fed added a gargantuan sum to its balance sheet in March, netting an increase of $324B.

And Then Something Broke…

Over the past several months, Mike Maharrey and I have posted numerous articles that conclude the same way… the Fed is bluffing and when something breaks, they will fold. On every podcast, Mike has walked through exactly why this is inevitable. Back in September, I laid out the math that showed why the Fed would fold and laid […]