Peter's Blog

The Yield Curve & Christine Lagarde Agree — Don’t Expect A “Soft Landing”

An inverted Treasury yield curve has historically been associated with economic downturns, preceding every recession since the late 1960s. Earlier this year, it set a new record for remaining inverted for more than 624 days, which was the 1978 record.

Fed Shrinks Balance Sheet by Nearly $120B in May

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends.

Money Supply Growth is Flattening Out

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect.

AI’s Disruptive Effect on Traditional Assets

Artificial Intelligence has already had an incredibly disruptive effect on many industries. It has allowed inexperienced workers the ability to increase their productivity and outpace older workers with less tech-savvy. It has begun to help some companies make efficient decisions that they would have been blinded to if they had only considered their own industry conventions. AI is different from many other […]

“Safe Haven” Yen Trending Towards Zero Against Gold

The yen was once known as a safe-haven currency for investors to protect themselves when broader markets are shaky or other currencies are dropping, but those days are numbered. A stable government and consistent (and low) interest rates have been some of the driving factors, but it’s the unwinding of that ultra-low interest rate policy that will be the yen’s “safe […]

Is the Comex Showing an Impending Price Spike in Silver?

The Comex report last month showed a lot of strength in gold which directly preceded a massive up move for the price of gold. The data is looking similar in silver this month!

The Copper Supply Shortage Is Here

With the AI boom and green energy push fueling fresh copper demand, and with copper mines aging and not enough projects to match demand with supply, the forecasted copper shortage has finally arrived in earnest. Coupled with persistently high inflation in the US, EU, and elsewhere, I predict the industrial metal will surpass its 2022 top to reach a […]

CPI vs Rate Cuts: The Fed’s Mission Impossible

With a hot CPI report casting a shadow of doubt on the likelihood of a June interest rate cut, all eyes are on the Fed. But they’ve caught themselves in a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” moment for the economy — and the news for gold is good regardless.