Peter's Blog

Fed Sends Mixed Messages After Hiking Rates

The Federal Reserve sent out mixed messages after its November FOMC meeting leaving markets wondering just how much more the central bank will tighten monetary policy. As expected, the Fed delivered another 75 basis point rate hike, pushing the Fed funds rate to between 3.75 and 4%. The last time interest rates were this high […]

Fed Policy in a Nutshell: Live in Hope; Die in Despair

During his post- FOMC meeting press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said, “Hope for the best; plan for the worst.” I think he meant, “Live in hope; die in despair.”

Is the Federal Reserve at the End of Its Rope?

The Federal Reserve delivered another 75 basis point interest rate hike at its July FOMC meeting. This pushes the federal funds rate over the 2% threshold to between 2.25% and 2.5%. The mainstream media emphasized the size of the hike. One headline called it “a second super-sized hike,” with many other mainstream pundits noting that […]

How Long Will the Fed Hawks Keep Flying?

After the June FOMC meeting and the Fed’s 75- basis point interest rate hike, I argued that the central bank is totally winging it. Reading between the lines in the minutes from that June meeting seems to bear this out. The Fed appears to be in reaction mode. The question becomes what will it react […]

Will This Be the Last Move in the Fed’s Inflation Fight?

The Federal Reserve took a more aggressive swing at red-hot inflation at its June FOMC meeting, raising interest rates by 3/4%. It was the biggest hike since 1994. The question is will this be the last swing at inflation?

The Fed Takes a Weak Swing at Inflation

The Federal Reserve came through with the second rate hike of this tightening cycle, bumping up the Fed Funds rate by 0.5%. It was the biggest interest rate boost by the Fed since 2000. But given the extent of the inflation fight, this hardly seems like a bold, aggressive move. In fact, it was a […]

The Fed Released Its December FOMC Minutes; I Have Questions!

The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the December FOMC meeting on Thursday (Jan. 5) and the markets freaked once again at the prospect of monetary tightening. The minutes seem to indicate an even more abrupt shift to tighter monetary policy to fight inflation. But I have questions.

The Taper Is On

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its November FOMC meeting on Wednesday and finally did something other than talk. The central bank announced it will begin to taper its massive quantitative easing program.

A Dove in Hawk’s Clothing: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap June 18, 2021

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its June meeting this week. The markets are convinced Jerome Powell has gone hawkish. Has he though? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey talks about the messaging coming out of the FOMC meeting and reaches a completely different conclusion. He also compares and contrasts […]

Was This Fed Meeting Really “Hawkish?”

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its June meeting. While the central bank didn’t raise rates, the messaging coming out of the FOMC was widely viewed as hawkish. But was it really? We don’t think so. In fact, the Fed’s messaging was extremely dovish. And the fact that it continues to ignore inflation doesn’t bode well […]