Peter's Blog

Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges by an Incredible $980B YoY

The Federal Government ran a deficit last month of $240B. Revenue continues to be at or below levels last year while expenses continue to grow.

Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number

The CPI rose in May by 0.12%. Energy accounted for -0.25% of the move. This means without the move in Energy, the CPI would have risen by 0.37% which annualizes to a rate of 4.5%. This shows that inflation is still quite problematic.

Will the Next Debt Ceiling Debate Conclude in Abolishment?

The Treasury has an open data platform where they publish all of the data related to the US Treasury. This includes debt, spending, revenue, etc. Different data sets are updated at different frequencies. The official US Debt is updated monthly (typically by the fourth business day). This data can be seen in the chart below.

A Surging National Debt Is Bullish for Gold

The debt ceiling drama ended with fake budget cuts and a shiny new credit card with no limit for the federal government. We can now expect a big surge in the national debt as the US government plays catch up after nearly six months up against its borrowing limit. So, how might this impact the […]

I Told Ya So! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap June 9, 2023

In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey engages in a little “I told you so!” discussing a couple of things he got right, including his assertion that the real problems would start after the debt ceiling deal and that it was important to keep your eye on the commercial real estate […]

ETF Gold Holdings Increase for Third Straight Month and Go Positive on the Year

Gold-backed funds reported an inflow of gold for the third straight month in May, flipping global ETF demand positive on the year.

Trade Deficit Spikes to Highest Level in Six Months

The April trade deficit came in at -$74.5B which was the largest trade deficit since October 2022.

Big Sale By Turkey Dropped Global Central Bank Gold Reserves for First Time in a Year

A large sale by Turkey in April caused global central bank reserves to fall for the first time in over a year, even as central bank gold buying continued. Official global reserves dropped by 71 tons in April, according to the latest data collected by the World Gold Council.

CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Drives Price Drop

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/02/2023 for the period ending 05/30/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. Managed money has once again bailed on gold, which drove the price back below $2000 an ounce despite the “Other” group stepping in to absorb some of the selling.

Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story

The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.