Peter's Blog

Keep Your Eye on the Ball: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Dec. 16, 2022

It’s easy to get caught up in the day-to-day gyrations of the market, pronouncements of certain government or central bank officials, and the most recent data dump. So, it’s important to keep your eye on the ball. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey breaks down the latest inflation data […]

CPI: History Suggests the Inflation Fight Might Just be Starting

Before digging into history, let’s look at the recent data. The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for November came in at 0.08%. The YoY rate was 7.17%, below median forecast of 7.3%.

Budget Deficit: Is the Surge In Tax Revenues Over?

The Federal Government ran a deficit of $249 billion in November. This is the highest monthly deficit since July 2021 if you ignore the one-time student loan forgiveness-driven deficit in September.

Lies and Statistics: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast Dec. 9, 2022

Mark Twain once said there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. The government excels in all three. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey digs into the recent jobs data. He reveals that the numbers just don’t add up and explains why the labor market might not be as awesome […]

TTM Trade Deficit Reaches New Record $982B

The October Trade Deficit increased for the second month in a row to $78.2B. The Deficit had been getting help from exports out of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the pull from the SPR has slowed in recent weeks.

Annualized Interest Set to Exceed $700B By July, Up $400B in Two Years

The Treasury added $175B in new debt during November, hitting the debt ceiling of $31.4T. New debt issuance was focused on the short end of the curve with $145B in Treasury Bills issued.

Central Banks Start Q4 Buying More Gold

After adding a historically high amount of gold to reserves in the third quarter, central banks kicked off Q4 buying more gold. According to data compiled by the World Gold Council, central banks globally added another 31 tons of gold to official reserves in October.

Is Managed Money Buying this Bull Market?

While demand for physical gold and silver have been robust, managed money has dominated the market. So, is it buying this bull market? Please note: the CoTs report was published 12/02/2022 for the period ending 11/29/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Fed Has $48B Loss in November and Sees Massive Balance Sheet Reduction

The Fed has a targeted balance sheet reduction of $95B a month. Up until this point, the Fed had failed to reach its target almost every month since QT began. In the latest month, the Fed made up for their recent shortfall with a big balance sheet reduction of $139B, exceeding their target by 50%! Despite the larger-than-expected […]

Jobs Report: Not Strong Enough to Prevent a Soft Pivot

According to the BLS, the economy added 263k jobs in November with a modest revision up in October from 261k to 284k but a revision down in September from 365k to 269k. October was a beat against median expectations of 200k. The employment rate (black line) stayed flat at 3.7% while the labor force participation ticked […]