Peter's Blog

Jobs Report: 7 of 8 Categories are Below Trend While Revisions are Negative Again

According to the BLS, the economy added 263,000 jobs in September, which was slightly below the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000.  More significantly, the trends reveal a slowing labor market. Education and Health led the way with strong hiring along with Leisure and Hospitality.

Treasury Locks in Higher Rates for Longer Despite Exploding Interest Costs

Over the last 18 months, the Treasury has aggressively converted short-term debt to longer-term debt. This can be seen in the chart below with the turquoise bars being negative.

Something’s Gonna Break! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Oct. 7, 2022

Last week, the Bank of England threw in the towel on its inflation fight and launched a quantitative easing program. Why? Because something broke in the UK financial system. That led to a rally in stocks and precious metals this week as many in the US realized the Fed might be closer to a pivot […]

Trade Deficit: Are Falling Imports Further Sign of Recession?

The August Trade Deficit fell for a fifth straight month to -$67.4B. The Deficit is now down an 37% from the high struck back in March. As shown by the chart below, this is mainly driven by a fall in Imports as Exports have stayed relatively flat.

India Charts Healthy Gold Demand in September

Gold demand in India was healthy in September and the outlook is strong moving forward. Healthy retail demand in September drove the local price briefly into a premium of $2 to $3 per ounce early in the month. It was the first time gold had been in premium since May.

Peter Schiff vs. Bart Melek: Is It Time to Buy Gold?

Is now the time to buy gold? Or should we be bearish on the precious metal? Peter Schiff debated TD Securities Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy Bart Melek on the future of gold prices on CNBC Asia.

CoTs Report: Managed Money Hammers Gold for 7th Straight Week

Managed Money continues to hammer the price of gold lower as the Net Short position increased to -43k contracts. Please note: the CoTs report was published on 9/30/2022 for the period ending 9/27/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Central Banks Add Gold for Fifth Straight Month

Central banks globally added to their net gold holdings for the fifth consecutive month in August, according to the latest data released by the World Gold Council. On net, central banks added 20 more tons of gold to their reserves. Three banks drove buying in August and there were no notable sellers.

Surprise! Another Month = Another Failed Attempt at QT

The Fed has found it easier to raise rates than shrink its balance sheet. September was supposed to be the month when the Fed got serious about shrinking the balance sheet. After a few months of warming up with $47.5B monthly reductions, the Fed was going to step up in September and shrink by $95B ($60B in […]

Economics Always Wins in the End: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 30

With a hurricane barreling toward his home, Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey called an audible and recorded this week’s show ahead of time. And since the hurricane is in the news, as well as top-of-mind for his family, he uses it as a jumping-off point to talk about some economics including the concept […]