Peter's Blog

Warsh Vows No Excuses on 2 Percent Inflation

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole podium on Friday to draw a bright line around the central bank’s credibility, declaring that the long-promised 2 percent inflation goal on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is “a firm, fixed target.” Price stability, he said, “is not self-executing…it’s the Fed’s job to deliver stable […]

The Fed Has Added $344B in Treasury Bills in a year

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet The Fed has quietly been doing Quantitative Easing since February. The pace of accumulation has slowed in recent […]

Consumer Confidence Slips Again, Future Outlook Darkens

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 0.8 points to 89.4 in August, down from 90.2 in July, based on a survey conducted between August 3rd and August 16th. The decline marks the second consecutive monthly drop, though the headline figure masks a sharper divergence beneath the surface. While consumers grew somewhat more upbeat about […]

The Dangerous Politics of Techno-Asset Inflation

Monetary inflation and technological revolution have combined to produce dangerous asset bubbles throughout history, from the precious-metal inflows and printing press of the Northern Renaissance to today’s digital-era boom in equities and speculative assets. The technology-driven productivity gains mask rising prices in goods markets, giving central banks cover to keep interest rates artificially low, fuel […]

July Income Rises, but Inflation Erases Most of the Gain

Personal income climbed by $115.1 billion, or 0.4 percent, in July 2026, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income, which is income after taxes, rose by an even larger 0.5 percent. Yet consumer spending told a different story, inching up just 0.2 percent in nominal terms and less […]

The Warsh Fed is Growing Money Supply at the Fastest Rate since Covid

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

World Gold Council: The Indian Gold Market is Accelerating

International gold prices climbed 9% in the first two weeks of August, according to the World Gold Council’s latest India market update. Domestic Indian prices followed suit, gaining nearly 7% over the same period, though the rupee’s appreciation against the US dollar softened the impact for Indian buyers. The move marks a recovery from June’s […]

Follow the Risk

Tracing the distribution of risk is an important method that is helpful for understanding the trade-offs of any government action. Almost every government action reduces risk for some group and repackages the risk and forces another group to bear it. The government often serves as a hedge against risk, but it is important to understand […]

The Federal Reserve’s Independence Is an Illusion

The Fed’s supposed independence from the Treasury has always been more rhetoric than reality, and recent friction between Treasury Secretary Bessent and the Fed over currency intervention shows how that rhetoric bends whenever cooperation is convenient. The claimed separation lets both institutions share credit when policy succeeds and deflect blame onto each other when it […]

July Fed Meeting Minutes Reveal a Divided Central Bank

Even as inflation continues to run well above the central bank’s stated 2% target, the Fed’s latest decision was to hold interest rates steady. The meeting’s minutes were released on Wednesday, August 19th, offering a glimpse into the Fed governors’ perspectives on the economy and their role in it. Three regional Fed presidents, Beth Hammack, […]