Peter's Blog

Government Jobs Account for Nearly a Quarter of July Gains

The BLS provides an employment picture of the US on the first Friday of every month. It estimates how many jobs were added or subtracted by sector. While some of the assumptions may be controversial (e.g. the birth/death model) and job numbers are prone to revisions, it remains the most widely anticipated statistic each month by […]

Faking It: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast Aug. 6, 2021

Gold was solidly above $1,800 an ounce this week until Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida mentioned the economy reaching the Fed’s goals earlier than expected and raised the specter of monetary policy tightening. But is the economy really improving as much as everybody seems to think? In this week’s Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey […]

Rising Production Costs Undercut “Transitory” Inflation Narrative

In yet another sign inflation might not be transitory, over 85% of manufacturers reported increasing prices in July in the most recent manufacturing ISM report. At some point, producers will have to take steps to mitigate the impact of rising prices. That means passing costs on to consumers, cutting costs, or some combination of the […]

Fake Economic Growth and Stealthy Government Default

Inflation continues to run rampant and it’s distorting the entire economy. Rising prices create the illusion of economic growth. And they are also allowing the US government to stealthily default on its massive debt. This is not a sign of a strong economy.

Shrinking Rolls of Toilet Paper? Blame the Fed!

We’ve been talking a lot about rising prices. The CPI has come in hotter than expected every month this year. We’re paying more to buy less. We see the impacts of inflation on price tags, but sometimes it squeezes us more subtlety. It’s known as “shrinkflation.”

Does the Big GDP Miss Signal Looming Stagflation?

GDP for the second quarter disappointed, coming in at an annualized rate of 6.5%. Is this a sign of impending stagflation? While 6.5% growth looks good on the surface, economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected annualized GDP to chart around 9.1%. This was a huge miss and indicates the economy isn’t growing nearly […]

All You Do to Me Is Talk Talk! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap July 30, 2021

The Federal Reserve held its July meeting this week. Once again, it didn’t do anything. But there was certainly plenty of talk to dissect. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey does just that with some analysis of the messaging coming out of the Fed meeting, along with a look at […]

It’s Game Over if the Markets Call the Fed’s Bluff

The Federal Reserve insists inflation is “transitory” and the economy is making “progress.” Yet, it continues with the extraordinary monetary policy it launched at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, we’re seeing all kinds of data hinting that the economy may not be as great as advertised. Despite this, and even as prices continue […]

A Whole Lot of Talk, No Action at the Latest Fed Meeting

The Federal Reserve wrapped up its July meeting on Wednesday. Once again, there was a whole lot of talk and no action. The Fed kept interest rates at zero. The Fed kept its quantitative easing program rolling. The Fed didn’t do anything. But the Fed had plenty to say.

Money Supply July 2021: Growth Rate Sees Massive Drop

M2 Money Supply is measured by the Federal Reserve to calculate the amount of Money in the financial system. The Fed defines M2 as: Seasonally adjusted M2 is constructed by summing savings deposits (before May 2020), small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1. Historically, […]