Peter's Blog

Jobs: Every Jobs Report in 2025 has Been Revised Lower

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Jobs: The Economy Only Added 28k jobs from Jan-Jun

Note: This includes the Jobs report for November that was released on December 16th and the QCEW Report released on Dec 19th The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the […]

ADP Numbers: Private Sector Dumps Over 30K Jobs

U.S. private-sector hiring slipped into negative territory last month, according to the November ADP National Employment Report released December 3rd. Payrolls fell by 32,000 positions—an abrupt reversal that economists say underscores gathering economic headwinds and a wary consumer. Small businesses were the hardest hit, shedding 120,000 jobs, while the spot price of gold briefly punched […]

Jobs: Every Month in 2025 has Been Revised Down with Two Turning Negative

Note: This is the Jobs report for September that was released late on November 20th. There will be no October jobs report The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the […]

Payrolls Shrink, Gold Brushes $3,900 Amid Labor Squeeze

U.S. private employers unexpectedly cut 32,000 jobs in September, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report released Tuesday, marking the first aggregate decline since early 2024. Goods makers shed 3,000 positions and service industries bled another 28,000, with layoffs concentrated in leisure and hospitality (-19,000) and professional and business services (-13,000). The dismal headline […]

June Job Loss Signals Trouble Ahead

With another round of jobs data released last week, another revision to June’s numbers reveal two startling truths. First, jobs actually decreased in June, contrary to the initial estimates. Second, and arguably worse, the Trump administration’s cover-up of these numbers is as bad as critics thought. The following article was originally published by the Mises […]

Jobs Mirage: BLS Slashes 911,000 Positions from the Economy

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a quiet bombshell on September 9, unveiling a preliminary benchmark revision that erased 911,000 jobs from March 2025 payroll tallies. The 0.6% markdown is roughly triple the average adjustment of the past decade and instantly casts doubt on months of breezy “resilient labor market” headlines. Almost the entire shortfall […]

Schiff on Commodity Culture: Gold Breaks $3,600

On Monday’s episode of the Commodity Culture podcast, Peter joins host Jesse Day and walks listeners through what he sees as a pivotal moment for precious metals and for the dollar. He argues that gold quietly began a new leg of its bull market in 2024, that the labor market is weaker than officials admit, […]

Jobs: Firing the Head of the BLS Resulted in Positive Revisions for the First Time in 2025 

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on.  Current Trends  The jobs report showed […]

Fed’s Waller: ‘Let’s Get On with’ Inflation

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Thursday night speech at the Economic Club of Miami to press, yet again, for easier money. Declaring that “the time has come to ease monetary policy and move it to a more neutral stance,” the long-time dove said he would have cut rates in July and plans […]