Peter's Blog

Fed’s Barkin Describes a ‘Low-Hire, Low-Fire’ Economy That Doesn’t Feel Great

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told a business audience in Greenville, South Carolina, this week that the United States has averaged 2.5 percent real GDP growth since 2023 despite the pandemic, supply-chain shortages, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, tariffs, and higher interest rates. He credited stout consumption, still nearly 70 percent […]

Fed Tries to Talk Tough on Inflation in Annual Report

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]

Fed’s Williams Talks Tough on Inflation as Gold Tops $4,000

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams didn’t show up to Tuesday’s Crane’s Money Fund Symposium in person, but his prepared remarks got out anyway. Gold didn’t care either way. Williams described the U.S. economy as “resilient amid the uncertainty” from the Middle East conflict, pointing to steady consumer spending and “robust” artificial-intelligence investment. In […]

Americans Are Spending More, but Their Savings Are Quietly Disappearing

May’s economic data tells a story that sounds good on the surface but gets more complicated the closer you look. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its report Friday showing personal income climbed 0.7 percent last month, adding $181.6 billion, with disposable income rising by that same margin. Americans didn’t sit on that extra […]

Fed Projects Stickier Inflation; Gold Touches $4,365

On June 17th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target at 3.50–3.75 percent, repeating its wait-and-see stance even as headline inflation refuses to retreat to the central bank’s two-percent objective. In a unanimous 12–0 vote, policymakers argued that U.S. growth “is expanding at a solid pace” and promised, in their words, “The […]