Peter's Blog

Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges by an Incredible $980B YoY

The Federal Government ran a deficit last month of $240B. Revenue continues to be at or below levels last year while expenses continue to grow.

Energy Disguises a Pretty Bad Inflation Number

The CPI rose in May by 0.12%. Energy accounted for -0.25% of the move. This means without the move in Energy, the CPI would have risen by 0.37% which annualizes to a rate of 4.5%. This shows that inflation is still quite problematic.

Silver Is Significantly Underpriced Given the Looming Supply Shortage

Given the current macroeconomic environment and the supply and demand dynamics, silver is significantly undervalued at $24 to $25 an ounce.

Will the Next Debt Ceiling Debate Conclude in Abolishment?

The Treasury has an open data platform where they publish all of the data related to the US Treasury. This includes debt, spending, revenue, etc. Different data sets are updated at different frequencies. The official US Debt is updated monthly (typically by the fourth business day). This data can be seen in the chart below.

I Told Ya So! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap June 9, 2023

In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap, host Mike Maharrey engages in a little “I told you so!” discussing a couple of things he got right, including his assertion that the real problems would start after the debt ceiling deal and that it was important to keep your eye on the commercial real estate […]

Trade Deficit Spikes to Highest Level in Six Months

The April trade deficit came in at -$74.5B which was the largest trade deficit since October 2022.

CFTC CoTs Report: Managed Money Drives Price Drop

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/02/2023 for the period ending 05/30/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. Managed money has once again bailed on gold, which drove the price back below $2000 an ounce despite the “Other” group stepping in to absorb some of the selling.

Jobs: The Household Survey Tells a Different Story

The BLS reported that a whopping 339,000 jobs were added in May. This crushed median estimates of 190,000 jobs added. The Household Survey tells a very different story though, reporting a loss of 310,000 jobs.

Fed Reduces Treasury Bill Balance By Over $100B in May

The Fed reduced its balance sheet by $177 million last month. The majority of this was actually in Treasuries with less than 1-year maturity, totaling $102B. The next biggest reduction was in loans, totaling $40B.

Gold Has Record Number of Contracts Cash Settle to Start June Delivery

As expected, gold has turned in a fairly strong start to the month on the COMEX. It’s below April but is still early in the contract.