Peter's Blog

Federal Budget: TTM Deficit Surges to $1.9T as Tax Revenues Collapse

The Federal Government ran a surplus last month, as it typically does in April due to the tax deadline. The surplus was $176B which was 43% lower than the surplus last April. As the chart below shows, this was driven entirely by collapsing revenues as expenses actually fell as well.

The CPI Is Two Months Away From Bottoming Before the Next Leg Up

The CPI rose in March by 0.37%, which was much larger than last month’s 0.06%. As shown below, this was driven by the energy component flipping from negative to positive. And there’s even worse news. The math is about to turn on the CPI calculation.

US Debt Analysis: Net Interest to Exceed $700B by November

While the US government is not currently adding to the national debt due to being up against the debt ceiling, it is working overtime trying to keep the government afloat. Significantly, the interest on the national debt is skyrocketing even with the temporary lull in borrowing.

Multiple Factors Turn a Weak Employment Report Strong

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that 256k jobs were added in April with major revisions down in previous months. Meanwhile, the Household Survey reported only 139k jobs in April, the lowest amount since November last year.

Gold Contracts for Immediate Delivery Explode Higher

In 5 days, the COMEX has seen 4,190 contracts open and stand for immediate delivery. This is the strongest start to a month going back at least 2 years, which includes the start of the war in Ukraine and the February 2021 Reddit silver squeeze.

Reality Over Rhetoric: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap May 5, 2023

The Federal Reserve raised rates yet again during its May FOMC meeting. Now everybody is trying to decipher the messaging coming out of the Fed to figure out what’s next. But what if the words Powell and Company are saying don’t really matter? In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey […]

Falling Trade Deficit Suggests a Weakening US Economy

The March Trade Deficit decreased for the first time in four months. The total deficit came in at -$64.2B, which is the second smallest deficit since January 2021. This might seem like good news but it’s yet another indication of a weakening economy.

Texas Committee Passes Bill to Create 100% Reserve Gold and Silver-Backed Transactional Currencies

On May 2, a Texas House committee passed a bill to create 100% reserve gold and silver-backed transactional currencies. Enactment of this legislation would create an option for people to conduct business in sound money, set the stage to undermine the Federal Reserve’s monopoly on money, and possibly create a viable alternative to a central […]

Record Silver Demand in 2022 and Other Silver News

All major categories of silver demand charted highs in 2022, contributing to a new total global silver demand record of 1.242 billion ounces. This is one of several silver-related stories in the latest edition of Silver News published by the Silver Institute.

CFTC CoTs Report: Traders Go Quiet Before Fed Meeting

The CoTs report is a breakdown of open interest in the major futures markets as reported by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission Please note: the CoTs report was published 04/28/2023 for the period ending 04/25/2023. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.