Peter's Blog

Trade Deficit: Are Falling Imports Further Sign of Recession?

The August Trade Deficit fell for a fifth straight month to -$67.4B. The Deficit is now down an 37% from the high struck back in March. As shown by the chart below, this is mainly driven by a fall in Imports as Exports have stayed relatively flat.

CoTs Report: Managed Money Hammers Gold for 7th Straight Week

Managed Money continues to hammer the price of gold lower as the Net Short position increased to -43k contracts. Please note: the CoTs report was published on 9/30/2022 for the period ending 9/27/2022. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably.

Surprise! Another Month = Another Failed Attempt at QT

The Fed has found it easier to raise rates than shrink its balance sheet. September was supposed to be the month when the Fed got serious about shrinking the balance sheet. After a few months of warming up with $47.5B monthly reductions, the Fed was going to step up in September and shrink by $95B ($60B in […]

Economics Always Wins in the End: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 30

With a hurricane barreling toward his home, Friday Gold Wrap podcast host Mike Maharrey called an audible and recorded this week’s show ahead of time. And since the hurricane is in the news, as well as top-of-mind for his family, he uses it as a jumping-off point to talk about some economics including the concept […]

Comex: Platinum Shorts Live to See Another Day

I typically start this analysis with gold, but the action in the platinum market is impossible to ignore. The next four charts should tell you everything you need to know. First, similar to gold and silver, platinum has seen a much higher delivery volume since the pandemic struck in 2020.

Study Shows You Need More Silver in Your Portfolio!

Do you have silver in your portfolio? You should! According to research by Oxford Economics, investors would benefit from an average of 4 to 6 percent silver allocation within a diversified portfolio. This is far below the average investor’s exposure to silver.

Collapse in Money Supply Is Still a Major Risk for the Market

Money Supply growth was barely positive in August at $2B and sits well below the $233B seen last year. As the chart below shows, Money Supply growth has collapsed since February. Last year started with five straight months above $200B, whereas 2022 has only seen one month above $100B and that was January.

Calling the Fed’s Bluff: They are Holding a Losing Hand

The Fed has talked a big game lately. Many people (including me) assumed the Fed would fold a long time ago. There is a very good reason — the Fed will crush the economy and the US Treasury with higher interest rates. In reality, the Fed is holding a losing hand and trying to bluff […]

Price Analysis: Support Becomes Resistance

The price analysis last month titled Caution Warranted in the Short Term, highlighted the potential risk in gold and silver after a rough July and early August. It concluded the path was much less clear. There were two possible paths forward: Gold could be range bound again between $1750-$1800, or, a hawkish Fed at the Jackson […]

Feel the Pain! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Sept. 23, 2022

The September Federal Reserve meeting wrapped up this week with another 75 basis point rate hike. And Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that there is going to be some pain as the central bank continues to fight inflation. In this episode of the Friday Gold Wrap podcast, host Mike Maharrey reacts to the meeting and […]