Peter's Blog

Wishful Thinking: SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap Podcast May 13, 2022

When we got the March CPI data last month, the mainstream crooned that it looked like we were at peak inflation. This was wishful thinking. The April CPI data that came out this week, along with the producer price numbers, indicate that we’re still climbing that inflation mountain. In this episode of the Friday Gold […]

Federal Surplus: Did the Treasury Just See Peak Revenue?

Tax revenues have been on the rise for about 18 months. As speculated previously, if this windfall was temporary, it would have shown up with a deficit in April due to a higher than normal tax returns surge. April is historically a positive month for the Treasury, but a surge in tax returns leading to […]

We May Not Have Hit Peak Inflation Yet…

The latest seasonally adjusted inflation rate for April came in higher than expectations at 0.34% MoM and 8.28% YoY. The main driver for the MoM slowdown was a fall in Energy prices.

Alabama and Virginia Extend Sales Tax Exemptions on Gold and Silver Bullion

Virginia and Alabama both extended their sales tax exemptions on precious metal bullion this year, relieving some of the tax burdens on investors, and taking a step toward treating gold and silver as money instead of as commodities.

A Very Average Jobs Report

According to the BLS, the economy added 428k jobs in April. This exactly matched the March number after it was revised down by 3k. The unemployment rate stayed flat at 3.6%. The Labor Force Participation rate dropped from 62.4% to 62.2%. YoY, this April is up 165k jobs compared to last April.

A New Paradigm: Interest Grows Even When Total Debt Shrinks

The Treasury reduced the total debt by $27B in April. This is not atypical since Tax Day falls in April. In April 2016 and 2018, the debt shrunk $78B and $21B respectively. April 2017 and 2019 were both flat due to a debt ceiling saga. 2020 and 2021 were exceptions because the tax deadline was […]

The Crossroads Is Looming! SchiffGold Friday Gold Wrap May 6, 2022

The Fed hiked rates 0.5% this week in an effort to stem the inflation tide. But the economy already looks shaky and the central bank has barely started this inflation fight. Friday Gold Wrap host Mike Maharrey breaks down the messaging that came out of the Fed meeting and concludes the central bank is getting […]

Trade Deficit Explodes 22.3% MoM and 53.8% YoY

The March trade deficit came in at -$110B. This obliterated the February record trade deficit of $90B. As the chart below shows, the trade deficit has set a record in each of the last 4 months. It was creeping upwards from -$80B to -$90B before exploding in the latest month.

Comex Results: May is Quiet, but June Looks Strong in Both Metals

This analysis focuses on gold and silver physical delivery on the Comex. See the article What is the Comex for more detail. As reported last week, Comex May’s open interest activity was looking weak in silver while gold showed a mixed picture. May has been weak so far, but June continues to look strong.

CFTC: Swaps Have Increased Gold Short Position by More than 1,300% since Nov 2015

Since the peak on March 8, Managed Money has reduced its Net Long positions by 60k contracts or 43%. Despite massive selling, the gold price has actually held up fairly well. The last time Managed Money net longs dropped this low in February, gold was struggling at the $1800 level, versus the struggle at $1900 […]