Peter's Blog

A Brief History of Wartime Federal Expansion

While the Federal instinct to encroach is constant, an uncomfortable historical fact should slow down your enthusiasm whenever you hear cries for unity during war time. The enemies that America faces are our enemies for good reason, but the current bloated state of the Federal government has been allowed only through a series of encroachments […]

The Tragedy of the Commons in our Welfare State

While motivated from a positive desire to take care of the least in society, the modern American welfare system has many deep flaws that have both perpetuated poverty and destroyed real well-being. The tragedy of the commons is an analytical framework that can give insight into this phenomena. It is a tale of the public […]

The Fed’s Cloud of Unknowing

Aside from not existing, an “ideal” central bank requires the ability to hold trust over a long period of time. The problem with the current central bank is that it changes strategies every few months depending on outside political pressures or what it thinks will smooth a period of volatility. This pattern means that all […]

The Three Doomsday Horsemen of Public Education

Before this article begins, it must be remembered that American public education has allowed many children to receive great educations. Teachers who deeply care about their students are able to open their eyes to the vast expanse of the world and the knowledge in it, along with empowering them to live more successful lives as […]

Sentiment Trading and the Limits of Knowledge

While value investors examine companies’ financial data and future outlook, most short-term investment strategies now incorporate some sentiment analysis insights. Rather than analyzing the long-term ability to create value of a company, quantitative traders recognize that investor sentiment is the primary driving factor of short term price fluctuation. Far from the perfect competition assumption of […]

No, Inflation is not “Crushed”

Trump has repeatedly claimed that he has beaten inflation. His high spending “Big Beautiful Bill,” along with his desperate calls for expansionary monetary policy draw ire from anyone who understands the world from an Austrian perspective. However, he still has the audacity to claim that he has solved inflation, and we no longer need to […]

How the Bull Moose Undermined the Bull Markets

Teddy Roosevelt is simultaneously loved and reviled by both parties. His enigmatic legacy comes as a result of his stances that maddened even his own party at the time, along with his unprecedented use of presidential power. He simultaneously attacked corporations, other countries, and racial equality, all while creating the internationally involved vision of America […]

The Fed Wouldn’t Cut it as a Normal Bank

The Fed is governed by institutional rules that separate it in operation and incentive from all other banks. Rather than being driven by profit and benevolence, it is ruled by a convoluted system of spoken and unspoken incentives that are often at odds with one another. The purpose of the Fed is nominally to keep […]

The Underlying Theory Behind Really, Really, Bad Predictions

What do the biggest banks, the most prominent news outlets, and advanced AI models have in common? They were all wrong about the 2025 gold price by over $1000. While there is always a lot of uncertainty in the financial markets, being off by over $1000(over 30% of gold’s 2024 year-end price), is embarrassing. While […]

Is It Too Late To Hop On The Gold Train?

Everyone from central banks to people saving for retirement are wondering whether now is too late to buy gold or whether the recent price increases will keep going. Gold has beat the market in the last two years, and kept even with it over the last 20 years. The rise in price of the last […]