Peter's Blog

After posturing to use tariffs to eliminate income tax, the Trump administration has now shifted to a narrative that they’ll pay off deficits. Both promises are hollow.  Deficits as massive and persistent as ours demand massive Treasury issuance. That means markets have to absorb ever-larger supply, pushing yields higher if demand fails to keep up. […]

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell used his Jackson Hole podium on August 22 to declare the end of the central bank’s three-year experiment with “flexible average-inflation targeting.” In its place, the Fed is reverting to a straight-forward but “flexible” 2 percent target, a move that comes as economic momentum cools and goods prices perk up. […]

Three weeks after the Federal Open Market Committee opted to leave its target range unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, fresh details from the July meeting shed light on why policymakers are growing uneasy even as they stay on hold. Minutes released Wednesday reveal officials wrestling with sticky price pressures, new tariffs, and a cooling labor market—all while […]

It would be natural to assume that gold would be treated like an investment by the government. However, US tax regulations put gold in an entirely different category than almost any other serious investment. While many thoughtful people choose to view gold as an investment, the IRS chooses to view it as a collectible. This […]

If one were to view Chatsworth Estate and Dyrham Park from a distance, the two historic estates might seem similar. However, from guest experience to governing structure, the ways these places differ provides some crucial insights into the economics of change and institutional structure. Dyrham Park was purchased by the British National Trust in 1956, […]

Bad jobs numbers? Just say they’re good. High inflation? Just claim it’s low. While the old adage “numbers don’t lie” may have a ring of truth, in reality, people lie a lot, and governments lie constantly—and they’re releasing the data that all the big decisions are supposed to be based on.  For example, if people […]

Upstream price pressures roared back in July, according to Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The headline PPI for final demand leapt 0.9 percent after a flat reading in June. Year-over-year, producer prices are now 3.3 percent higher, the largest 12-month increase since February. The data landed just 2 […]

On Monday President Trump signed an executive order that temporarily keeps additional duties on Chinese imports from snapping back into force, extending a 90-day tariff reprieve that would have expired just after midnight on August 12. The new directive, “Further Modifying Reciprocal Tariff Rates to Reflect Ongoing Discussions with the People’s Republic of China,” pushes […]

Economic cross-currents, political headwinds, and an elevated gold price framed Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin’s August 12 remarks to The Health Management Academy in Chicago. Barkin told the Four Seasons crowd that U.S. real GDP expanded at just 1.2 percent during the first half of 2025, less than half last year’s 2.5 […]

The American services engine came more than one point under expectations but stayed in the green by the slimmest of margins last month, even as price pressures roared back to life and trade frictions deepened. The Institute for Supply Management’s Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.1 for July, just a whisker above […]