Peter's Blog

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]

ADP Logs Surprise 33,000 Job Drop 

Hiring hit the brakes in June, with the ADP National Employment Report showing U.S. private-sector payrolls shrinking by 33,000 positions—the first monthly contraction of 2025. Goods makers managed to eke out modest gains, but service industries bled jobs, and small businesses took the biggest hit. Wages, meanwhile, kept climbing faster than the official inflation gauges, […]

What the AI Boom Means for Precious Metals

We are living through the early stages of a technological revolution, and Wall Street is salivating over artificial intelligence. AI is being hailed as the new electricity: a transformative force destined to rewire nearly every industry, capital flows, and the very nature of human productivity itself. 

The Double-Edged Sword of Information in the Innovation Economy

Almost everyone in the field of economics believes that information possessed by more people will lead to better overall outcomes. More freedom of information means that the decision makers upon which the economy hinges are able to make the right decision for themselves and everyone else involved. Even when people are competitive to the harm […]

Long Term Inflation Fears Simmer at 4%

Consumers may be breathing a small sigh of relief, but they’re hardly celebrating. The University of Michigan’s latest “Current versus Pre-Pandemic Long-Run Inflation Expectations” update, released Friday, shows the median expectation for inflation over the next 5 years dipping to 4.0 % in June after topping out at 4.4 % in April. While that is […]

Powell Stalls, Tariffs Loom, and Consumers Turn Gloomy

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told the House Financial Services Committee on Tuesday that the central bank is in no rush to move interest rates, even as fresh tariffs cloud the outlook and inflation remains sticky. “For the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the […]

The 75,000 Page Horror Story

While most of the American government can be characterized by regulatory overgrowth, few areas loom larger in the public imagination than the Tax Code. This reputation is well earned, as the Tax Code seems to become more complicated each time people try to reform it. Hundreds of years of revisions have left American taxpayers in […]

GDP Turns Negative as Inflation Smolders

In a new report released today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shaved another three-tenths off first-quarter growth estimates, revealing that real U.S. GDP actually slipped 0.5 percent at an annual rate instead of inching ahead. The contraction follows a 2.4 percent gain in 2024’s closing quarter, marking the economy’s sharpest quarterly swing since the […]

How We Protect the Fed From Its Own Consequences

While the Fed prints money endlessly, there is always the irresistible feeling that the effects of that printing are not felt in full. The money supply greatly increases and brings inflation in tow, yet life never gets as bad as we would expect it to. The fundamental shifting of money’s value should have an even […]

New Policy Report: Fed has Bad News for Congress

In a report released on Friday, the Fed provided a monetary policy update to congress, highlighting its perspective on keeping rates constant and its outlook on the future of the economy. The report comes after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target locked at 4¼ %–4½ % for a sixth straight meeting […]