Peter's Blog

Recession Bells Ring Louder as Conference Board’s LEI Sinks

The U.S. economy’s “early-warning siren” just grew louder. The Conference Board reported Monday that its Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell 0.3 percent in June to 98.8—a level not seen since 2020. The decline extends the LEI’s losing streak to 18 of the last 19 months and pushes its six-month drop to 2.8 percent. With the […]

June Inflation Higher Than Expected, Driven by Shelter

Spring’s brief lull in price pressure has faded. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that headline CPI rose 0.3 percent in June and 2.7 percent year over year, up from May’s 2.4 percent pace and higher than the 2.6% consensus forecast. Core CPI—excluding food and energy—advanced 0.2 percent on the month […]

Last Week in Metals: Other Metals Join the Party

Gold finished last week at US $3,352 per ounce, a modest 0.6 % gain that nonetheless leaves the metal up an eye-catching 28.5 % year-to-date. Monday’s trade saw prices probe as high as US $3,365, keeping bullion within arm’s reach of the two-month trading ceiling that technicians have marked at US $3,395. All of this […]

Central Bankers vs. The Dollar

If Donald Trump has his way and recent reports are accurate, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is considering stepping down from his position. While extremely rare, Fed Chairs resigning before the end of their term isn’t entirely unheard of. Powell’s obligations would ordinarily extend to May 2026.

Get Ready for Big, Beautiful Inflation

As is the case with many new regulations, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had the opposite effect as what was implied by its name. President Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and bringing down prices.

Fed Governor Waller Defends $6.7 Trillion Balance Sheet

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller used a Dallas Fed podium Thursday to peel back the curtain on the central bank’s swollen balance sheet—and to argue that a slim-down is overdue but shouldn’t be draconian. Since 2007, Fed assets have ballooned from $870 billion (about 6 percent of U.S. GDP) to roughly $6.7 trillion, even […]

New Insights from the Fed’s Meeting Minutes: Market Expects Rate Cuts

Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s June 17–18 meeting show policymakers content to hold their fire—for now. The Fed kept its benchmark federal-funds range at 4¼–4½ percent and left both the interest rate on reserve balances (4.4 percent) and the primary-credit rate (4.5 percent) untouched. Officials insisted that “recent indicators suggest that economic activity […]

ADP Logs Surprise 33,000 Job Drop 

Hiring hit the brakes in June, with the ADP National Employment Report showing U.S. private-sector payrolls shrinking by 33,000 positions—the first monthly contraction of 2025. Goods makers managed to eke out modest gains, but service industries bled jobs, and small businesses took the biggest hit. Wages, meanwhile, kept climbing faster than the official inflation gauges, […]

What the AI Boom Means for Precious Metals

We are living through the early stages of a technological revolution, and Wall Street is salivating over artificial intelligence. AI is being hailed as the new electricity: a transformative force destined to rewire nearly every industry, capital flows, and the very nature of human productivity itself. 

The Double-Edged Sword of Information in the Innovation Economy

Almost everyone in the field of economics believes that information possessed by more people will lead to better overall outcomes. More freedom of information means that the decision makers upon which the economy hinges are able to make the right decision for themselves and everyone else involved. Even when people are competitive to the harm […]