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June 20, 2025Original Analysis

The WWIII Trade

As war rages on in Iran and Israel, equities are down overall while defense stocks are surging, and both gold and silver have bounced, followed by volatile corrections. You could take a lot of guesses about how to trade the war and chaos—but the surest chaos bet will always be precious metals, especially in the […]

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June 19, 2025Original Analysis

New York Manufacturing Slumps Again

New York’s manufacturing sector faced another difficult month, marking a consistent four-month decline according to the recent Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The general business conditions index fell sharply to -16.0 in June, emphasizing the continued contraction in regional economic activity. Despite the deteriorating conditions, there is […]

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June 13, 2025Original Analysis

The Silver Bull is Finally Here

With silver classically lagging behind gold during the yellow metal’s stunning recent rise, the long-anticipated bull market for silver is finally here in earnest. And in a bull market, silver tends to outperform gold—once it finally catches up.

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June 10, 2025Original Analysis

ECB Cuts Interest Rates Amid Persistent Economic Risks

On June 5th, the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council announced another round of interest rate reductions, lowering key rates by 25 basis points. Starting June 11th, the deposit facility rate will fall to 2.00%, the main refinancing operations rate to 2.15%, and the marginal lending facility rate to 2.40%. This move underscores the ECB’s […]

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June 10, 2025Original Analysis

Trump Needs the Money Printer

Trump has a long history of begging the Fed to print money, and in his second term, that hasn’t changed a bit. In fact, he needs the free money spigots to turn on to delay a collapse that, otherwise, he’d be blamed for.

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June 10, 2025Original Analysis

Inflation Remains Stubbornly High in Mexico, Food Prices Surge

Mexico’s latest inflation numbers released by INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía) on June 9th reveal continued fragility in the economy despite official reassurances. For the month of May, inflation rose 0.28% month-over-month, bringing the annual inflation rate to 4.42%. While the central bank and policymakers emphasize easing inflationary pressures, persistently high prices for […]

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June 6, 2025Original Analysis

Fed’s Harker Warns Tariff Risks, Debt Threaten Economic Stability in Farewell Speech

Delivering his final public remarks as President and CEO of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve on yesterday, Patrick T. Harker urged caution regarding inflation, tariff policies, and rising national debt, highlighting enduring challenges to U.S. economic stability. The speech occurred at the Philadelphia Fed, marking the culmination of Harker’s tenure before his scheduled retirement at month-end. […]

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May 28, 2025Original Analysis

Japanese vs. US: Which Are More Cooked?

No one wants Japan’s sovereign debt.  The global sovereign bond collapse appears to be rapidly worsening. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) owns more than half of its own government bonds, desperate to prop up the economy by buying domestic debt that nobody else wants. But no central bank can prop up an economy forever.

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May 5, 2025Original Analysis

Here’s Why Tariffs Won’t Bring Back Manufacturing

Tariffs are being pitched as a magic bullet to revive American manufacturing, pushing out foreign competitors to bring red, white, and blue factories humming back to life. It sounds great: tax imports to bring companies back to the States, and generate a flood of revenue in the process as jobs flood back to the heartland. […]

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