Peter's Blog

Fed’s Barkin Describes a ‘Low-Hire, Low-Fire’ Economy That Doesn’t Feel Great

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin told a business audience in Greenville, South Carolina, this week that the United States has averaged 2.5 percent real GDP growth since 2023 despite the pandemic, supply-chain shortages, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, tariffs, and higher interest rates. He credited stout consumption, still nearly 70 percent […]

Headline PPI Holds Steady in July, but Core Price Pressures Persist

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that its Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand was unchanged in July, a reading that stands in contrast with the 4.7 percent increase recorded over the past 12 months. Consumer prices showed a similar pattern: the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent for the month but […]

Why the FIMA Repo Facility Can’t Save Japan (Or the U.S.)

Japan’s long experiment with near-zero rates and relentless deficit spending is hitting its limits, and the consequences are eventually going to hit U.S. markets. The yen’s slide toward levels not seen in decades forced Tokyo into repeated interventions, and for the first time since 1998, Washington joined in to save the U.S. and the world […]

BOJ Sees Inflation Holding Above Target, Signals Further Tightening

The Bank of Japan’s Policy Board concluded its July 30-31, 2026 meeting with a fresh “Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices” that keeps inflation in focus. While the Bank raised its fiscal 2026 growth estimate slightly to a median 0.6 percent, it still expects consumer prices (all items less fresh food) to climb a median […]

Consumer Confidence Declines Again; Gold Over $4,000

U.S. households grew more pessimistic in July, according to the latest data from the Conference Board, and investors responded by sending gold to yet another record. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.4 points to 90.8 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 92.2 in June and continuing a decline that has persisted since late […]

Americans, The Fed, and Bond Markets Agree on Inflation

American citizens, the Fed, and bond markets all know: Inflation isn’t under control. When the Fed prints, they write inflation on the wall. And even if they do everything “perfectly” to return inflation to the target of 2%, that’s just slowing down the pace of their stealing. Your purchasing power is still robbed from you, […]

Fed Holds at 3.50–3.75%, but Inflation Stays Stubborn

The Federal Open Market Committee left its target range for the federal-funds rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent on July 29, opting for continuity even as price pressures refuse to cool. The 9-3 vote, only Chairman Kevin Warsh’s second FOMC meeting as chairman, preserves a policy mix that pairs flat rates with what officials […]

Tech and the Vote to Intent Ratio

The vote to intent ratio is the proportion of total intentional government action that is driven by any voter filling their proportionate share of total government action. If the government can be crassly compared to a corporation, each citizen within that government would be a shareholder with an equal share of equity in the state. […]

Jefferson, Hamilton, and Main Street

Thomas Jefferson and Alexander Hamilton held fundamentally different beliefs about the relationship between Federal and local government. Jefferson held that the local government was the primary building block of the nation and that the federal government had the responsibility to protect rights and deal with administrative tasks such as defense and trade that would be […]

Stakes Higher Than Finance: Shylock and the Central Bank

The dramatic heart of the play, Merchant of Venice, centers around a deal that turns a bad financial decision into a matter much more serious than money. In a situation where the titular merchant, Antonio, seeks to help out a friend in a time of social need, Shylock the moneylender gives him a loan of […]