Peter's Blog

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook delivered a familiar warning in a speech in Anchorage on August 5th: price pressures remain stubborn. Citing a 3.7 percent annual rise in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index through June, Cook said flatly, “Inflation is too high.” Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, is running at […]

The latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed little movement across the major measures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that job openings were “little changed” at 7.4 million in June 2026, a 4.4 percent openings rate that has barely budged for months. Hiring held at 5.3 million, while total separations stayed near […]

In an unexpected echo of the 1990s, the U.S. Treasury on July 31st directed the New York Fed to sell euros and purchase Japanese yen, marking the first outright yen-buying intervention by the United States since 1998. Tokyo’s Ministry of Finance had already entered the market earlier that day, and Washington’s involvement turned the move […]

Americans earned more in June yet saved less, according to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent, or $54.9 billion, while disposable personal income (DPI) increased at the same pace. Consumers did not retain the additional income for long: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose […]

Central banks are not easing off the gold pedal. According to the World Gold Council’s newly released 2026 Central Bank Gold Reserves Survey, monetary authorities have been snapping up an average of 1,000 tonnes of bullion annually over the past four years– double the pace seen in the prior decade. Nearly nine in ten survey […]

On June 17th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target at 3.50–3.75 percent, repeating its wait-and-see stance even as headline inflation refuses to retreat to the central bank’s two-percent objective. In a unanimous 12–0 vote, policymakers argued that U.S. growth “is expanding at a solid pace” and promised, in their words, “The […]

April’s Consumer Price Index offered scant comfort to households or policymakers, with headline prices rising 0.6 percent for the month and 3.8 percent from a year earlier, according to Wednesday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Though the monthly pace eased from March’s blistering 0.9 percent gain, the yearly rate accelerated, underscoring that the inflation fire […]

In his Senate confirmation hearing on April 21st, Federal Reserve Chairman–designate Kevin Warsh pledged nothing short of a philosophical reset at the world’s most influential central bank. Backed by President Trump and politely flanked by Senator Elizabeth Warren, Warsh told lawmakers that full employment and stable prices remain “mission-critical,” yet achievable only if the Fed […]

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde used the ECB’s 2026 Annual Global Risk Lecture in Bologna this week to deliver a stark message: “we are leaving a world where risk can be measured and modeled, and entering one of genuine uncertainty.” Her twin culprits are escalating geopolitical fragmentation and the break-neck spread of artificial intelligence. […]

Accessing gold, for most traditional investors, means being constrained by the hours and limitations of traditional markets. You can meet anyone at any time to trade dollars for gold in person, or order from a broker in the middle of the night, but only by expending significant energy and effort for a transaction that is […]