Income Rises, Saving Falls, Gold Holds Above $4,100

Americans earned more in June yet saved less, according to the latest Personal Income and Outlays report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal income rose 0.2 percent, or $54.9 billion, while disposable personal income (DPI) increased at the same pace. Consumers did not retain the additional income for long: personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose 0.3 percent, pulling the already low personal saving rate down to 2.7 percent. Even with a small month-to-month decline in the headline PCE price index, overall inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve’s stated 2 percent goal, a backdrop that accompanied gold past $4,100 an ounce on Thursday.

A closer look at the data shows June’s spending increase flowed largely into services, up $58.2 billion, while goods spending added $7.0 billion. After adjusting for inflation, real PCE increased 0.4 percent, outpacing nominal income growth and indicating that households are drawing on savings to cover daily expenses. The headline PCE price index fell 0.1 percent following a 0.5 percent increase in May, and core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.1 percent. Prices remain 3.7 percent above year-ago levels on the headline measure and 3.3 percent on the core gauge, still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent price stability goal.

June’s income gains reflected higher private-sector wages and salaries, along with higher dividend and interest income. Government transfer payments also increased, supported by larger Medicare and Social Security payments. Offsetting those gains, farm proprietors’ income fell as support payments under the American Relief Act expired, reflecting how funding decisions made in Washington can shift quickly. Separately, the BEA revised its April and May estimates to incorporate new employment and Medicaid data, a routine update reflecting newly available source information.

Personal outlays (PCE plus interest and transfer payments) increased $70.0 billion in June, continuing a pattern in which consumption and debt service grow faster than after-tax income. The resulting $646.1 billion in total personal saving is among the lower levels recorded in recent years, leaving households with less room to absorb higher borrowing costs should they remain elevated. 

The next income and spending report is scheduled for August 26, with a broader annual data update due September 30. Until then, incomes are advancing slowly, prices hold well above target, and saving continues to decline, conditions that continue to support interest in time-tested stores of value outside the reach of central bank policy.