Peter's Blog

Federal Budget The Federal Government publishes the spending and revenue numbers on a monthly basis. The charts and tables below give an in depth review of the Federal Budget, showing where the money is coming from, where it is going to, and the surplus or deficit. The government fiscal year closes at the end of […]

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used a speech before the New York Association for Business Economics on July 13th to deliver one of his most direct warnings of the year: core inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Federal Open Market Committee may have to tighten again. After six months of relative calm, core […]

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its June 16 and 17 meeting, released this week, add detail to a decision markets absorbed weeks ago: the Committee held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous vote. That unanimity, however, masked real disagreement underneath. A few participants told colleagues they saw a […]

As the United States prepares to commemorate its 250th anniversary, Americans will celebrate the nation’s founding with pageantry, parades, pomp and patriotism. Loving one’s country of birth and taking pride in its independence-inspired origins, praiseworthy accomplishments, and laudable legacy is a natural inclination and respectable trait. Similar celebration and reverence shouldn’t apply to the dollar, […]

Mainstream economists often argue that increasing the money supply is necessary to stimulate economic growth. However, Austrian economists have long recognized that monetary expansion merely creates the illusion of prosperity while sowing the seeds of future crises. Printing money cannot create real wealth or productive resources, but instead distorts economic calculation and leads to malinvestment. […]

Alan Greenspan served as Federal Reserve Chairman for nearly two decades, presiding over the US economy during a period of significant growth and turmoil. While often portrayed as a stalwart defender of free markets, a closer examination of his career reveals a more complex picture. Greenspan’s ability to adapt his views and rhetoric to suit […]

June’s Employment Situation report offered little comfort to households or policymakers. Headline non-farm payrolls grew by a scant 57,000, a figure that arrived alongside a combined 74,000 downward revision to April and May. The official unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, yet that improvement came only because 720,000 Americans exited the labor force. As […]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) on Tuesday, and the report offered little new for markets to digest. Total openings in May held at 7.6 million, hires came in at 5.2 million, and separations totaled 5.1 million. The underlying rates (openings at 4.6%, hiring at 3.3%, […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]