Last Week in Gold: Tariff Pressure Eases and ECB Holds Rates

Gold prices refused to budge much last week, with the LBMA Gold Price PM settling Friday at $3,344 per ounce—just 0.3 percent below the prior close. That leaves the metal up a dazzling 28.6 percent year-to-date, still among 2025’s best-performing assets despite a flurry of trade headlines and political theatrics. Early gains driven by tariff jitters and President Trump’s very public sparring match with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fizzled after the president insisted there is “no tension” with the Fed and unveiled several new trade agreements. Even so, bullion’s resilience underscores lingering doubts about policy stability and the sustainability of the risk-on mood sweeping equities.

Speculative interest continues to creep higher. COMEX net-long futures contracts expanded, and global gold-backed ETF tonnage ticked up, signaling steady institutional demand, while options traders pared exposure ahead of the Fed’s July 29–30 meeting. Technicians now peg first support at $3,330–3,310 and first resistance at $3,451; a decisive break either way could push prices toward $3,132 on the downside or reopen the path to $3,500 on the upside. Monday’s $32 intraday swing to $3,338 confirmed the metal’s current sideways channel—and reminded investors that volatility can re-emerge quickly when headlines turn sour.

Across broader markets, optimism is bordering on exuberance. U.S. stocks rallied on robust second-quarter earnings—83 percent of S&P 500 companies have beaten estimates by an average 7 percent—and a UBS gauge of 15 “meme” favorites has gone vertical. The VIX volatility index, meanwhile, slid to multiyear lows, prompting the World Gold Council to warn of “equity euphoria” that could snap back violently. Yields on the 10-year Treasury slipped and the dollar softened, classic telltales of investors quietly hedging their bullish equity bets. In that context, gold’s quiet consolidation feels less like fatigue and more like a coiled spring for those wary of asset bubbles fueled by easy money.

Trade developments remain a wild card. Washington struck separate pacts with Japan, the European Union, Indonesia, and the Philippines; both the EU and Japanese deals slap a 15 percent tariff on most goods entering the United States, though Tokyo sweetened the pot with a promised $550 billion investment in U.S. projects. Negotiators are also expected to extend the U.S.–China tariff pause ahead of fresh talks in Stockholm. While markets cheered the flurry of signatures, history suggests that tariff truces can unravel quickly, and gold tends to benefit whenever negotiations wobble.

Monetary policy offers little clarity. The European Central Bank left its key rate unchanged at 2 percent after eight consecutive cuts, while U.S. housing data flashed mixed signals—existing-home sales fell 2.7 percent in June even as new-home sales eked out a 0.6 percent rise. Most analysts expect the Fed to stand pat this week given firm payroll and inflation numbers, though President Trump’s loud calls for rate cuts linger in the background. Should policymakers cave to political pressure—or merely hint at future accommodation—the case for sound, non-inflatable money only strengthens.

For now, bullion sits in a tight range, waiting for either the Fed or trade talks to provide direction. With equities stretched, volatility subdued, and tariffs still a tweet away from escalation, gold’s longstanding role as an all-weather hedge looks anything but obsolete.

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