Gold Sits at 28% on the Year as Tariff Clock Winds Down
Gold ended last week at a record-setting US $3,332 per ounce, up 1.8 % on the week and a blistering 28 % year-to-date. The metal’s march higher has come even as Wall Street cheers fresh equity highs and a softer dollar, underscoring bullion’s stubborn appeal as fiscal storm clouds gather. Yesterday’s price action was orderly—just a US $31 range—but option desks report a surge in bullish bets ahead of the week’s tariff deadline. Technical charts still call this a “consolidation,” yet resistance at US $3,395 looks increasingly fragile.
Macro headlines did little to disturb the calm. June non-farm payrolls grew by 147,000—beating forecasts but powered largely by government hiring—while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.1 %. Job openings popped to 7.8 million, their highest since November, yet private-sector momentum cooled. Markets largely shrugged: the S&P 500 notched another record, Treasury yields inched higher, and the dollar extended its drift lower. For now, bad news is good news—until it isn’t.
The bigger fiscal news came from Capitol Hill. President Trump’s razor-thin tax-and-spend package permanently extends the 2017 cuts, adds new perks for workers and seniors, and lifts the debt ceiling by a staggering US $5 trillion. Congressional scorekeepers peg the ten-year debt impact near US $3.4 trillion, even after tightening several safety-net programs. With Washington’s credit card wide open, those betting on “transitory” inflation might think twice; gold’s 28 % surge suggests plenty already have.
Trade tensions add another layer of tinder. Trump warned that nations failing to reach deals before July 9th face still steeper tariffs, including an extra 10% levy on BRICS-aligned countries. Option-market positioning hints that bullion traders view the deadline as a potential catalyst for a breakout to the US $3,500–3,510 zone. Immediate chart support sits near US $3,325, with deeper defenses at US $3,132–3,121—levels many sound-money advocates would welcome as fresh buying opportunities.
ETF inflows into gold slowed last week, yet that seems more a pause than a reversal; futures and options desks report fresh upside interest. New data released by the World Gold Council supports this, showing that the first half of 2025 had the largest net gold ETF inflow since July of 2020. With debt piling up and trade frictions simmering, the yellow metal’s quiet consolidation could be the calm before it jumps another leg higher.
