Peter's Blog

The economy is bound to eventually reach a point where it can no longer tolerate the interest rates required to keep inflation and debt under control, and some of the loudest warnings are coming from the bond market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2002. Even more […]

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16th, lifting the federal funds target to a range of 3.75-4% and ending nine months of holding rates steady. Speaking on October 8th at the Istanbul Economic Forum, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller laid out the reasoning behind the move. His […]

Last week, Peter joined Jeremy Szafron on Kitco News to explain why surging bond yields are the start of a much larger reckoning for the US economy. He walks through the collapse of the housing-driven spending boom, the dangerous combination of record debt and rising rates, and why gold remains the only real protection against […]

Oil exports in the Middle East have reached 98% of their pre-war levels. For a war that has so fundamentally challenged the traditional oil supply chain, this is an incredible achievement. With oil coming out of the Middle East at the same rate that it did before the war, it is only a matter of […]

In his latest interview with Mario Nawfal, Peter walks through why the US economy is entering a dangerous new phase defined by both record debt and climbing interest rates. He connects this looming crisis to the housing market, inflated net worth figures, and the political theater surrounding tariffs and stimulus checks, before closing with his […]

In his latest podcast, Peter walks through a string of warning signs flashing across the American economy, from a bond market running out of patience to consumers burning through savings just to keep up with the cost of living. He connects these dots to the tariff debate, showing who really foots the bill, and closes […]

The analysis below covers the Employment picture released on the first Friday of every month. While most of the attention goes to the Headline Report, it can be helpful to look at the details, revisions, and other reports to get a better gauge of what is really going on. Current Trends The jobs report showed […]

Introductory economics courses teach students that money serves three functions, a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value, but they rarely explain why money came to serve those roles in the first place. Following the Austrian School of economics, the medium of exchange function is primary and logically prior, while […]

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson delivered remarks titled “The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy” on October 1st at the Darden School of Business in Charlottesville, Virginia, offering the latest in a string of recent admissions from Fed officials that inflation has run hot for years without a clear resolution in sight. Jefferson acknowledged that […]

In Wednesday’s podcast, Peter breaks down the deteriorating bond market and what it means for mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and the broader economy. He also takes aim at the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac trade promoted by the Trump administration, tying it all together with a warning that decades of easy money are finally catching […]