Peter's Blog

Why Rate Cuts Only Delay Economic Recovery

Politicians have tricked their citizens into believing that low interest rates will solve their economic troubles– perhaps by lowering housing prices or stimulating the economy out of a recession. In reality, slashing rates isn’t a cure to economic ailments; it’s a poison that corrupts saving and investment and raises prices across the economy. The following […]

Interest Rates Are Set by People, Not Central Banks

Interventionists see interest rates as a key policy parameter set by central bank bureaucrats, betraying a crucial misunderstanding about the nature of interest. In reality, rates are determined by individual time preference– the willingness to trade off future and present consumption. The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do […]

CPI Inflation Cools Amid Falling Oil Prices and Slowing Rents

With the CPI coming in at 2.7% last week– lower than the expected 3.1% – markets rallied at the hope that inflation is being tamed. 2.7% is still nearly a full point higher than the Fed’s 2.0% goal, and this hope is misplaced: the Fed’s latest cuts will only drive inflation higher. The following article […]

Money Supply Surges to 3-Year High as Fed Quietly Eases Policy

With the market betting on a rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting, many are hoping for another few months of easy monetary policy. Money supply growth data, however, shows how monetary policy is already too free, and the money supply is already growing too much. The following article  was originally published by the Mises […]

Fed Trims Rates Again—Gold Vaults Past $4,200 Anyway

In a hotly-anticipated announcement, the Federal Open Market Committee shaved its federal-funds target by another quarter point on December 10th, setting the range at 3.50 – 3.75 percent. Fed officials insist the U.S. economy is still expanding at a “moderate pace,” yet the same statement concedes that job gains have cooled and unemployment inched higher […]

13 Week Money Supply Growth Stabilizes at 5%

Money Supply is a very important indicator. It helps show how tight or loose current monetary conditions are regardless of what the Fed is doing with interest rates. Even if the Fed is tight, if Money Supply is increasing, it has an inflationary effect. One key metric shown below is the “Wenzel” 13-week annualized money […]

Fed Governor Waller Calls for More Easing as Inflation Persists  

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller told the Society of Professional Economists in London Monday night that he backs another 25-basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting, calling the move “additional insurance” against a slowing labor market. His speech, delivered barely a month after a 43-day U.S. government shutdown halted many official releases, leaned heavily on […]

US Government Borrows $1.8T in Four Months

Current Trends The government hit the debt ceiling back in January which blocked any net new debt from being created from January to June. Once the debt ceiling was lifted, the government wasted no time in catching up for all the months where borrowing was frozen. From July through October, the government borrowed an eye […]

The Fed Doubles Down on Easy Money: Rate Cuts Deepen as QT Comes to a Halt

To the relief of many market-movers, last week the FOMC voted to cut rates for the second time this year and announced that the Fed will begin maintaining its balance sheet starting in December. With this return to easy-money, Powell and the Fed are again attempting to paper over economic fault-lines created by their own […]

Schiff on the Latest Rate Cut: Powell Should Listen to Greenspan

Peter joined Fox Business on Wednesday to comment on the Fed’s newest rate cut and analyze the central bank’s precarious position going into the holidays. As with the last rate cut, Peter criticizes loosening monetary policy when inflation is far from under control, and he explains why the bond market isn’t going to play nice […]