Peter's Blog

Why Are The Markets Wrong?

The role of the market as a creator and processor of information is central to Austrian economics. Prices should reflect the collective evaluation of everyone in the market as they utilize their own constrained resources. While the Austrian theory holds the market to be an important creator of information, it does provides a compelling answer […]

Oil Shock, AI Boom Complicate Fed’s Path, Vice Chair Jefferson Says

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson told an audience at Stanford University on July 16 that monetary policy is facing a “delicate balancing act,” as overlapping shocks from the Middle East conflict, post-pandemic imbalances, and newly erected trade barriers keep inflation above target and threaten to unmoor expectations. The remarks, delivered at the Stanford Institute […]

Warsh Vows “No Tolerance” for Inflation. Do We Believe Him?

In his first appearance before the House Financial Services Committee on July 14, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh took a firm stance, telling lawmakers that the central bank has “no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Warsh confirmed that June’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting left the federal-funds-rate target unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent, […]

Waller Hints at Rate Hike as Core Inflation Reignites

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller used a speech before the New York Association for Business Economics on July 13th to deliver one of his most direct warnings of the year: core inflation is moving the wrong way, and the Federal Open Market Committee may have to tighten again. After six months of relative calm, core […]

Fed Tries to Talk Tough on Inflation in Annual Report

The Federal Reserve’s July Monetary Policy Report, delivered to Congress last week, describes an economy running hotter than officials would like even as growth cools at the edges. Total personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) prices are up 4.1 percent over the past twelve months, and the core gauge sits at 3.4 percent, both well above the central bank’s […]

Fed Minutes Show a Committee More Divided Than the 12–0 Vote Suggests

The Federal Open Market Committee’s minutes from its June 16 and 17 meeting, released this week, add detail to a decision markets absorbed weeks ago: the Committee held its target range at 3.50 to 3.75 percent by a unanimous vote. That unanimity, however, masked real disagreement underneath. A few participants told colleagues they saw a […]

Fed’s Williams Talks Tough on Inflation as Gold Tops $4,000

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams didn’t show up to Tuesday’s Crane’s Money Fund Symposium in person, but his prepared remarks got out anyway. Gold didn’t care either way. Williams described the U.S. economy as “resilient amid the uncertainty” from the Middle East conflict, pointing to steady consumer spending and “robust” artificial-intelligence investment. In […]

CFTC CoTs: Managed Money Gets Bullish on Gold

Please note: the CoTs report was published 06/26/2026 for the period ending 06/23/2026. “Managed Money” and “Hedge Funds” are used interchangeably. The Commitment of Traders report is a weekly publication that shows the breakdown of ownership in the Futures market. For every contract, there is a long and a short, so the net positioning will […]

The Fed Balance Sheet Increases by $31B in June

The following analysis breaks down the Fed balance sheet in detail. It shows different parts of the balance sheet and how those amounts have changed. It also shows historical interest rate trends. Breaking Down the Balance Sheet As soon as the Fed ended Quantitative Tightening they launched a new round of Quantitative Easing. As shown […]

Fed Projects Stickier Inflation; Gold Touches $4,365

On June 17th, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept its federal-funds-rate target at 3.50–3.75 percent, repeating its wait-and-see stance even as headline inflation refuses to retreat to the central bank’s two-percent objective. In a unanimous 12–0 vote, policymakers argued that U.S. growth “is expanding at a solid pace” and promised, in their words, “The […]