Peter's Blog

Government spending feels like it simply cannot be stopped. No matter which party is in the White House, spending just increases. Republicans call for spending cuts to things they don’t like and Democrats call for spending cuts to things they don’t like, while both of them miraculously end up increasing the deficit. Government spending is […]

Peter recently joined The Competent Investor podcast to lay out his assessment of where U.S. fiscal and monetary policy are headed. He walks through the mechanics of a looming sovereign debt crisis, explains how the Federal Reserve has backed itself into a corner, and details how rising interest rates are quietly wrecking the housing market. […]

In his latest appearance on The Wolf of All Streets podcast, Peter breaks down why official government statistics deserve healthy skepticism, then walks through the math of America’s ballooning debt and interest payments. He also touches on the bond market’s prolonged bear run, the dollar’s weakness against gold, and even takes a jab at the […]

On a recent podcast with Theo Von, New York mayor Zohran Mamdani defined socialism as “everyone having access to the things necessary for a dignified life.” Theo Von seemed to empathize with him, talking about how at a certain point economic issues are bigger than politics, and that incumbents can be challenged by longshot socialist […]

Since Trump’s first term, a driving force among nationalist conservatives is a desire to limit immigration. The whole movement has an aura of survivalism about it. Conservatives feel that they are being replaced by people with a different culture than themselves. They are afraid that through democracy, their country will be taken away from them, […]

Beth Hammack, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, warned on October 12th that inflation pressures across the economy are broadening rather than fading, and that policy rates may need to move “toward an even higher latitude” if price pressures persist. Speaking at the National Association of Business Economics’ annual meeting in […]

A troubling  statistic has made the rounds through social media. It should be a warning to anyone, but in particular those who understand the dangers of fiscal irresponsibility: the US government must now spend more of their budget on interest payments than defense. Our own inability to stop consuming has turned interest into one of […]

The economy is bound to eventually reach a point where it can no longer tolerate the interest rates required to keep inflation and debt under control, and some of the loudest warnings are coming from the bond market. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.3%, reaching levels not seen since 2002. Even more […]

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on September 16th, lifting the federal funds target to a range of 3.75-4% and ending nine months of holding rates steady. Speaking on October 8th at the Istanbul Economic Forum, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller laid out the reasoning behind the move. His […]

Oil exports in the Middle East have reached 98% of their pre-war levels. For a war that has so fundamentally challenged the traditional oil supply chain, this is an incredible achievement. With oil coming out of the Middle East at the same rate that it did before the war, it is only a matter of […]